The favourite delivered: Mexico (64% pre-match) beat South Africa 2–0. The xG race (2.74 vs 0.27) says it was as one-sided as the scoreline suggests. Tempers frayed — 3 red cards shown.
Expected goals race
MexicoSouth Africa● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Shot map
Mexico (attacking →)South Africa (attacking ←)size = xG · star = goal
Mexico · match stats · South Africa
60.5Possession39.5
16Shots3
4On Target2
3Corners1
12Fouls11
1Offsides1
2Saves2
1Yellows2
1Reds2
What the model expected
Pre-match Elo: Mexico 1860, South Africa 1720. The model priced this Mexico 64% / draw 20% / South Africa 15%, most likely score 2–0. The model called it. The result moves 19 Elo points from South Africa to Mexico — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
9'GOALGoal! Mexico 1, South Africa 0. Julián Quiñones (Mexico) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Érik Lira.
17'YELLOWTeboho Mokoena (South Africa) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
23'YELLOWBrian Gutiérrez (Mexico) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
49'REDYaya Sithole (South Africa) is shown the red card.
56'SUBSubstitution, South Africa. Thalente Mbatha replaces Lyle Foster.
61'SUBSubstitution, South Africa. Themba Zwane replaces Jayden Adams.
66'SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Luis Chávez replaces Brian Gutiérrez.
66'SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Gilberto Mora replaces Álvaro Fidalgo.
67'GOALGoal! Mexico 2, South Africa 0. Raúl Jiménez (Mexico) header from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Roberto Alvarado with a cross.
74'YELLOWNkosinathi Sibisi (South Africa) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.