0.5183
Brier score
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | South Korea | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| 3 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -8 | 1 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Turkey | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 3 | -8 | 1 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | +4 | 5 |
| 3 | Sweden | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -10 | 0 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 3 | +4 | 5 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 | Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Uruguay | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Norway | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | 3 | -11 | 0 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Austria | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Algeria | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Jordan | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | 3 | +5 | 5 |
| 3 | DR Congo | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Panama | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Top two of each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams.
From 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining tournament, re-run after every match. Goals are Poisson-distributed with rates driven by live Elo ratings (seeded from world ratings, +50 for hosts at home).
Brier score measures probability accuracy: 0 is clairvoyant, 0.667 is a three-way shrug. The model is graded on every match it priced before kick-off — no retroactive edits.
The road to the final. Teams advance left to right; each tie fills in as results come in. Scroll sideways for the later rounds.
Built as a fully automated pipeline: results and shot-level data are pulled from public sources, an Elo system is replayed over every result, and the tournament is re-simulated 10,000 times — every six hours, via GitHub Actions, with no human in the loop. Last build 2026-07-20 14:44 UTC.