World Cup 2026

48 teams · 104 matches · 2 played
prashanthshankar.com →
Thu · Jun 11
FT
Mexico 2
South Africa 0
Group A
Mexico City
match report →
FT
South Korea 2
Czech Republic 1
Group A
Guadalajara (Zapopan)
match report →
Fri · Jun 12
15:00
Canada
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Group B
Toronto
18:00
USA
Paraguay
Group D
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
Sat · Jun 13
12:00
Qatar
Switzerland
Group B
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
18:00
Brazil
Morocco
Group C
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
21:00
Haiti
Scotland
Group C
Boston (Foxborough)
21:00
Australia
Turkey
Group D
Vancouver
Sun · Jun 14
12:00
Germany
Curaçao
Group E
Houston
19:00
Ivory Coast
Ecuador
Group E
Philadelphia
15:00
Netherlands
Japan
Group F
Dallas (Arlington)
20:00
Sweden
Tunisia
Group F
Monterrey (Guadalupe)
Mon · Jun 15
12:00
Belgium
Egypt
Group G
Seattle
18:00
Iran
New Zealand
Group G
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
12:00
Spain
Cape Verde
Group H
Atlanta
18:00
Saudi Arabia
Uruguay
Group H
Miami (Miami Gardens)
Tue · Jun 16
15:00
France
Senegal
Group I
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
18:00
Iraq
Norway
Group I
Boston (Foxborough)
20:00
Argentina
Algeria
Group J
Kansas City
21:00
Austria
Jordan
Group J
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
Wed · Jun 17
12:00
Portugal
DR Congo
Group K
Houston
20:00
Uzbekistan
Colombia
Group K
Mexico City
15:00
England
Croatia
Group L
Dallas (Arlington)
19:00
Ghana
Panama
Group L
Toronto
Thu · Jun 18
12:00
Czech Republic
South Africa
Group A
Atlanta
19:00
Mexico
South Korea
Group A
Guadalajara (Zapopan)
12:00
Switzerland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Group B
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
15:00
Canada
Qatar
Group B
Vancouver
Fri · Jun 19
18:00
Scotland
Morocco
Group C
Boston (Foxborough)
20:30
Brazil
Haiti
Group C
Philadelphia
12:00
USA
Australia
Group D
Seattle
20:00
Turkey
Paraguay
Group D
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
Sat · Jun 20
16:00
Germany
Ivory Coast
Group E
Toronto
19:00
Ecuador
Curaçao
Group E
Kansas City
12:00
Netherlands
Sweden
Group F
Houston
22:00
Tunisia
Japan
Group F
Monterrey (Guadalupe)
Sun · Jun 21
12:00
Belgium
Iran
Group G
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
18:00
New Zealand
Egypt
Group G
Vancouver
12:00
Spain
Saudi Arabia
Group H
Atlanta
18:00
Uruguay
Cape Verde
Group H
Miami (Miami Gardens)
Mon · Jun 22
17:00
France
Iraq
Group I
Philadelphia
20:00
Norway
Senegal
Group I
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
12:00
Argentina
Austria
Group J
Dallas (Arlington)
20:00
Jordan
Algeria
Group J
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
Tue · Jun 23
12:00
Portugal
Uzbekistan
Group K
Houston
20:00
Colombia
DR Congo
Group K
Guadalajara (Zapopan)
16:00
England
Ghana
Group L
Boston (Foxborough)
19:00
Panama
Croatia
Group L
Toronto
Wed · Jun 24
19:00
Czech Republic
Mexico
Group A
Mexico City
19:00
South Africa
South Korea
Group A
Monterrey (Guadalupe)
12:00
Switzerland
Canada
Group B
Vancouver
12:00
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Qatar
Group B
Seattle
18:00
Scotland
Brazil
Group C
Miami (Miami Gardens)
18:00
Morocco
Haiti
Group C
Atlanta
Thu · Jun 25
19:00
Turkey
USA
Group D
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
19:00
Paraguay
Australia
Group D
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
16:00
Curaçao
Ivory Coast
Group E
Philadelphia
16:00
Ecuador
Germany
Group E
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
18:00
Japan
Sweden
Group F
Dallas (Arlington)
18:00
Tunisia
Netherlands
Group F
Kansas City
Fri · Jun 26
20:00
Egypt
Iran
Group G
Seattle
20:00
New Zealand
Belgium
Group G
Vancouver
19:00
Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia
Group H
Houston
18:00
Uruguay
Spain
Group H
Guadalajara (Zapopan)
15:00
Norway
France
Group I
Boston (Foxborough)
15:00
Senegal
Iraq
Group I
Toronto
Sat · Jun 27
21:00
Algeria
Austria
Group J
Kansas City
21:00
Jordan
Argentina
Group J
Dallas (Arlington)
19:30
Colombia
Portugal
Group K
Miami (Miami Gardens)
19:30
DR Congo
Uzbekistan
Group K
Atlanta
17:00
Panama
England
Group L
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
17:00
Croatia
Ghana
Group L
Philadelphia
Sun · Jun 28
12:00
2A
2B
Round of 32
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
Mon · Jun 29
16:30
1E
3A/B/C/D/F
Round of 32
Boston (Foxborough)
19:00
1F
2C
Round of 32
Monterrey (Guadalupe)
12:00
1C
2F
Round of 32
Houston
Tue · Jun 30
17:00
1I
3C/D/F/G/H
Round of 32
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
12:00
2E
2I
Round of 32
Dallas (Arlington)
19:00
1A
3C/E/F/H/I
Round of 32
Mexico City
Wed · Jul 1
12:00
1L
3E/H/I/J/K
Round of 32
Atlanta
17:00
1D
3B/E/F/I/J
Round of 32
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
13:00
1G
3A/E/H/I/J
Round of 32
Seattle
Thu · Jul 2
19:00
2K
2L
Round of 32
Toronto
12:00
1H
2J
Round of 32
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
20:00
1B
3E/F/G/I/J
Round of 32
Vancouver
Fri · Jul 3
18:00
1J
2H
Round of 32
Miami (Miami Gardens)
20:30
1K
3D/E/I/J/L
Round of 32
Kansas City
13:00
2D
2G
Round of 32
Dallas (Arlington)
Sat · Jul 4
17:00
W74
W77
Round of 16
Philadelphia
12:00
W73
W75
Round of 16
Houston
Sun · Jul 5
16:00
W76
W78
Round of 16
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
18:00
W79
W80
Round of 16
Mexico City
Mon · Jul 6
14:00
W83
W84
Round of 16
Dallas (Arlington)
17:00
W81
W82
Round of 16
Seattle
Tue · Jul 7
12:00
W86
W88
Round of 16
Atlanta
13:00
W85
W87
Round of 16
Vancouver
Thu · Jul 9
16:00
W89
W90
Quarter-final
Boston (Foxborough)
Fri · Jul 10
12:00
W93
W94
Quarter-final
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
Sat · Jul 11
17:00
W91
W92
Quarter-final
Miami (Miami Gardens)
20:00
W95
W96
Quarter-final
Kansas City
Tue · Jul 14
14:00
W97
W98
Semi-final
Dallas (Arlington)
Wed · Jul 15
15:00
W99
W100
Semi-final
Atlanta
Sat · Jul 18
17:00
L101
L102
Match for third place
Miami (Miami Gardens)
Sun · Jul 19
15:00
W101
W102
Final
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
Group A
TeamPGDPts
1Mexico1+23
2South Korea1+13
3Czech Republic1-10
4South Africa1-20
Group B
TeamPGDPts
1Bosnia & Herzegovina000
2Canada000
3Qatar000
4Switzerland000
Group C
TeamPGDPts
1Brazil000
2Haiti000
3Morocco000
4Scotland000
Group D
TeamPGDPts
1Australia000
2Paraguay000
3Turkey000
4USA000
Group E
TeamPGDPts
1Curaçao000
2Ecuador000
3Germany000
4Ivory Coast000
Group F
TeamPGDPts
1Japan000
2Netherlands000
3Sweden000
4Tunisia000
Group G
TeamPGDPts
1Belgium000
2Egypt000
3Iran000
4New Zealand000
Group H
TeamPGDPts
1Cape Verde000
2Saudi Arabia000
3Spain000
4Uruguay000
Group I
TeamPGDPts
1France000
2Iraq000
3Norway000
4Senegal000
Group J
TeamPGDPts
1Algeria000
2Argentina000
3Austria000
4Jordan000
Group K
TeamPGDPts
1Colombia000
2DR Congo000
3Portugal000
4Uzbekistan000
Group L
TeamPGDPts
1Croatia000
2England000
3Ghana000
4Panama000

Top two of each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams.

Chance of winning the World Cup
Spain 23.5%
Argentina 20.3%
Brazil 10.4%
France 8.4%
England 7.4%
Netherlands 5.9%
Portugal 5.1%
Germany 3.9%
Belgium 2.8%
Morocco 2.4%
Uruguay 1.4%
Mexico 1.3%
Croatia 1.2%
Japan 0.8%

From 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining tournament, re-run after every match. Goals are Poisson-distributed with rates driven by live Elo ratings (seeded from world ratings, +50 for hosts at home).

Next matches — model line
Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 2026-06-12 · Group B
Canada 48% · draw 25% · Bosnia & Herzegovina 27%  —  most likely score 1–1
USA vs Paraguay · 2026-06-12 · Group D
USA 53% · draw 24% · Paraguay 23%  —  most likely score 1–1
Qatar vs Switzerland · 2026-06-13 · Group B
Qatar 17% · draw 21% · Switzerland 61%  —  most likely score 0–1
Brazil vs Morocco · 2026-06-13 · Group C
Brazil 51% · draw 24% · Morocco 24%  —  most likely score 1–1
Haiti vs Scotland · 2026-06-13 · Group C
Haiti 18% · draw 22% · Scotland 60%  —  most likely score 0–1
Australia vs Turkey · 2026-06-13 · Group D
Australia 28% · draw 25% · Turkey 47%  —  most likely score 1–1
Germany vs Curaçao · 2026-06-14 · Group E
Germany 80% · draw 13% · Curaçao 7%  —  most likely score 2–0
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador · 2026-06-14 · Group E
Ivory Coast 27% · draw 25% · Ecuador 48%  —  most likely score 1–1
Biggest upsets so far
South Korea beat Czech Republic 2–1 — model gave them 44%
Model scorecard
0.3319
Brier score
2
Matches scored
10,000
Sims per update

Brier score measures probability accuracy: 0 is clairvoyant, 0.667 is a three-way shrug. The model is graded on every match it priced before kick-off — no retroactive edits.

Built as a fully automated pipeline: results and shot-level data are pulled from public sources, an Elo system is replayed over every result, and the tournament is re-simulated 10,000 times — every six hours, via GitHub Actions, with no human in the loop. Last build 2026-06-12 10:12 UTC.