Thu · Jun 11
FT
Group A
Mexico City
match report →
FT
South Korea
2
Czech Republic
1
Group A
Guadalajara (Zapopan)
match report →
Fri · Jun 12
15:00
Canada
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Group B
Toronto
18:00
Group D
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
Sat · Jun 13
12:00
Group B
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
18:00
Group C
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
21:00
Group C
Boston (Foxborough)
Sun · Jun 14
19:00
Group E
Philadelphia
15:00
Group F
Dallas (Arlington)
20:00
Group F
Monterrey (Guadalupe)
Mon · Jun 15
18:00
Group G
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
18:00
Group H
Miami (Miami Gardens)
Tue · Jun 16
15:00
Group I
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
18:00
Group I
Boston (Foxborough)
21:00
Group J
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
Wed · Jun 17
15:00
Group L
Dallas (Arlington)
Thu · Jun 18
12:00
Czech Republic
South Africa
Group A
Atlanta
19:00
Group A
Guadalajara (Zapopan)
12:00
Switzerland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Group B
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
Fri · Jun 19
18:00
Group C
Boston (Foxborough)
20:30
Group C
Philadelphia
20:00
Group D
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
Sat · Jun 20
22:00
Group F
Monterrey (Guadalupe)
Sun · Jun 21
12:00
Group G
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
18:00
Group H
Miami (Miami Gardens)
Mon · Jun 22
17:00
Group I
Philadelphia
20:00
Group I
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
12:00
Group J
Dallas (Arlington)
20:00
Group J
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
Tue · Jun 23
20:00
Group K
Guadalajara (Zapopan)
16:00
Group L
Boston (Foxborough)
Wed · Jun 24
19:00
Group A
Monterrey (Guadalupe)
12:00
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Qatar
Group B
Seattle
18:00
Group C
Miami (Miami Gardens)
Thu · Jun 25
19:00
Group D
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
19:00
Group D
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
16:00
Group E
Philadelphia
16:00
Group E
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
18:00
Group F
Dallas (Arlington)
Fri · Jun 26
18:00
Group H
Guadalajara (Zapopan)
15:00
Group I
Boston (Foxborough)
Sat · Jun 27
21:00
Group J
Dallas (Arlington)
19:30
Group K
Miami (Miami Gardens)
17:00
Group L
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
17:00
Group L
Philadelphia
Sun · Jun 28
12:00
Round of 32
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
Mon · Jun 29
16:30
Round of 32
Boston (Foxborough)
19:00
Round of 32
Monterrey (Guadalupe)
Tue · Jun 30
17:00
Round of 32
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
12:00
Round of 32
Dallas (Arlington)
19:00
Round of 32
Mexico City
Wed · Jul 1
17:00
Round of 32
San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
Thu · Jul 2
12:00
Round of 32
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
20:00
Round of 32
Vancouver
Fri · Jul 3
18:00
Round of 32
Miami (Miami Gardens)
20:30
Round of 32
Kansas City
13:00
Round of 32
Dallas (Arlington)
Sat · Jul 4
17:00
Round of 16
Philadelphia
Sun · Jul 5
16:00
Round of 16
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
18:00
Round of 16
Mexico City
Mon · Jul 6
14:00
Round of 16
Dallas (Arlington)
Tue · Jul 7
13:00
Round of 16
Vancouver
Thu · Jul 9
16:00
Quarter-final
Boston (Foxborough)
Fri · Jul 10
12:00
Quarter-final
Los Angeles (Inglewood)
Sat · Jul 11
17:00
Quarter-final
Miami (Miami Gardens)
20:00
Quarter-final
Kansas City
Tue · Jul 14
14:00
Semi-final
Dallas (Arlington)
Wed · Jul 15
Sat · Jul 18
17:00
Match for third place
Miami (Miami Gardens)
Sun · Jul 19
15:00
Final
New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
Chance of winning the World Cup
Spain
23.5%
Argentina
20.3%
Brazil
10.4%
France
8.4%
England
7.4%
Netherlands
5.9%
Portugal
5.1%
Germany
3.9%
Belgium
2.8%
Morocco
2.4%
Uruguay
1.4%
Mexico
1.3%
Croatia
1.2%
Japan
0.8%
From 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining tournament, re-run after every match. Goals are Poisson-distributed with rates driven by live Elo ratings (seeded from world ratings, +50 for hosts at home).
Next matches — model line
Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 2026-06-12 · Group B
Canada 48% · draw 25% · Bosnia & Herzegovina 27% — most likely score 1–1
USA vs Paraguay · 2026-06-12 · Group D
USA 53% · draw 24% · Paraguay 23% — most likely score 1–1
Qatar vs Switzerland · 2026-06-13 · Group B
Qatar 17% · draw 21% · Switzerland 61% — most likely score 0–1
Brazil vs Morocco · 2026-06-13 · Group C
Brazil 51% · draw 24% · Morocco 24% — most likely score 1–1
Haiti vs Scotland · 2026-06-13 · Group C
Haiti 18% · draw 22% · Scotland 60% — most likely score 0–1
Australia vs Turkey · 2026-06-13 · Group D
Australia 28% · draw 25% · Turkey 47% — most likely score 1–1
Germany vs Curaçao · 2026-06-14 · Group E
Germany 80% · draw 13% · Curaçao 7% — most likely score 2–0
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador · 2026-06-14 · Group E
Ivory Coast 27% · draw 25% · Ecuador 48% — most likely score 1–1
Biggest upsets so far
South Korea beat Czech Republic 2–1 — model gave them 44%
Model scorecard
Brier score measures probability accuracy: 0 is clairvoyant, 0.667 is a three-way shrug. The model is graded on every match it priced before kick-off — no retroactive edits.