World Cup 2026

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Matchday 17 · Group K · 2026-06-27
Colombia
xG 3.94
HT 0–00 – 0
Portugal
xG 1.90
Hard Rock Stadium · 64,478 attendance
The story

A 0–0 draw — the model had that at 25%.

Expected goals race
12340′15′30′45′60′75′90′3.941.90
Colombia Portugal ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Luis Díaz · 1′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedJhon Córdoba · 2′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetRúben Neves · 4′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetLuis Díaz · 6′ · xG 0.21 · Shot Off TargetBruno Fernandes · 12′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off TargetGustavo Puerta · 14′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetJhon Córdoba · 17′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetLuis Díaz · 17′ · xG 0.21 · Shot BlockedJhon Arias · 22′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedCristiano Ronaldo · 24′ · xG 0.04 · Shot On TargetVitinha · 38′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedBruno Fernandes · 39′ · xG 0.38 · Shot On TargetCristiano Ronaldo · 39′ · xG 0.33 · Shot BlockedRúben Neves · 40′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetJoão Félix · 42′ · xG 0.22 · Shot Off TargetJames Rodríguez · 44′ · xG 0.21 · Shot BlockedJefferson Lerma · 44′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedGustavo Puerta · 45′ · xG 0.11 · Shot On TargetLuis Díaz · 45'+1′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetCristiano Ronaldo · 45'+2′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedJames Rodríguez · 45'+3′ · xG 0.10 · Shot On TargetJoão Félix · 51′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetJefferson Lerma · 55′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetJhon Arias · 55′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetJoão Félix · 57′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedRichard Ríos · 62′ · xG 0.35 · Shot Off TargetLuis Suárez · 65′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedDavinson Sánchez · 65′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetJhon Arias · 66′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetGustavo Puerta · 67′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetLuis Suárez · 73′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedJames Rodríguez · 74′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedDiogo Dalot · 78′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetLuis Suárez · 88′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Off TargetLuis Suárez · 90'+1′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetRafael Leão · 90'+3′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetGustavo Puerta · 90'+5′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Blocked
Colombia (attacking →) Portugal (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Colombia  ·  match stats  ·  Portugal
54.6 Possession 45.4
24 Shots 13
6 On Target 2
5 Corners 2
12 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 2
2 Saves 6
1 Yellows 0
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Colombia 27%draw 25%Portugal 48%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Colombia 1930, Portugal 2007. The model priced this Colombia 27% / draw 25% / Portugal 48%, most likely score 1–1. Reality had other plans. The result moves 5 Elo points from Portugal to Colombia — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
45' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Diogo Dalot replaces João Cancelo.
45' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. João Neves replaces Rúben Neves.
60' SUBSubstitution, Colombia. Richard Ríos replaces Jefferson Lerma.
60' SUBSubstitution, Colombia. Luis Suárez replaces Jhon Córdoba.
70' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Rafael Leão replaces João Félix.
70' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Samú Costa replaces Vitinha.
76' SUBSubstitution, Colombia. Kevin Castaño replaces Jhon Arias.
76' SUBSubstitution, Colombia. Juan Fernando Quintero replaces James Rodríguez.
86' YELLOWGustavo Puerta (Colombia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
87' SUBSubstitution, Colombia. Daniel Muñoz replaces Santiago Arias.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Matheus Nunes replaces Nuno Mendes.
Lineups
Colombia
4-3-3
  • 12Camilo Vargas G
  • 3Jhon Lucumí CD-L
  • 23Davinson Sánchez CD-R
  • 22Deiver Machado LB
  • 4Santiago Arias RB
  • 16Jefferson Lerma CM
  • 14Gustavo Puerta LM
  • 11Jhon Arias RM
  • 9Jhon Córdoba F
  • 7Luis Díaz LF
  • 10James Rodríguez RF
Subs: Richard Ríos, Luis Suárez, Kevin Castaño, Juan Fernando Quintero, Daniel Muñoz
Portugal
4-2-3-1
  • 1Diogo Costa G
  • 13Renato Veiga CD-L
  • 3Rúben Dias CD-R
  • 25Nuno Mendes LB
  • 20João Cancelo RB
  • 8Bruno Fernandes AM
  • 23Vitinha LM
  • 21Rúben Neves RM
  • 7Cristiano Ronaldo F
  • 11João Félix AM-L
  • 18Pedro Neto AM-R
Subs: Diogo Dalot, João Neves, Rafael Leão, Samú Costa, Matheus Nunes
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).