World Cup 2026

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Matchday 9 · Group C · 2026-06-19
Scotland
xG 1.53
HT 0–10 – 1
Morocco
xG 2.08
Morocco Ismael Saibari 2′
Gillette Stadium · 64,146 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Morocco (59% pre-match) beat Scotland 1–0.

Expected goals race
0.511.520′15′30′45′60′75′90′1.532.08Ismael Saibari 2′
Scotland Morocco ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Ismael Saibari · 2′ · xG 0.16 · GoalAyyoub Bouaddi · 20′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedNeil El Aynaoui · 30′ · xG 0.16 · Shot Off TargetBilal El Khannouss · 36′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Off TargetAchraf Hakimi · 38′ · xG 0.52 · Shot Off TargetJohn McGinn · 45'+1′ · xG 0.36 · Shot Off TargetKieran Tierney · 45'+2′ · xG 0.16 · Shot BlockedIsmael Saibari · 50′ · xG 0.29 · Shot BlockedBilal El Khannouss · 52′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetBrahim Díaz · 58′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedAchraf Hakimi · 62′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetRyan Christie · 64′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off TargetScott McTominay · 85′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedLyndon Dykes · 86′ · xG 0.41 · Shot Off TargetScott McTominay · 88′ · xG 0.33 · Shot BlockedChemsdine Talbi · 90'+1′ · xG 0.04 · Shot BlockedChemsdine Talbi · 90'+3′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetAyoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab · 90'+5′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off Target
Scotland (attacking →) Morocco (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Scotland  ·  match stats  ·  Morocco
41.1 Possession 58.9
6 Shots 12
0 On Target 2
2 Corners 5
11 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 0
1 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Scotland 19%draw 22%Morocco 59%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Scotland 1774, Morocco 1927. The model priced this Scotland 19% / draw 22% / Morocco 59%, most likely score 0–1. The model called it. The result moves 15 Elo points from Scotland to Morocco — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
2' GOALGoal! Scotland 0, Morocco 1. Ismael Saibari (Morocco) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Brahim Díaz with a through ball.
23' YELLOWIssa Diop (Morocco) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
60' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Ben Gannon-Doak replaces Kieran Tierney because of an injury.
65' YELLOWAndy Robertson (Scotland) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
71' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Lyndon Dykes replaces Ché Adams.
71' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Kenny McLean replaces Ryan Christie.
84' SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Soufiane Rahimi replaces Ismael Saibari.
84' SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Chemsdine Talbi replaces Bilal El Khannouss.
84' SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab replaces Brahim Díaz.
89' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Anthony Ralston replaces Nathan Patterson.
89' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Ross Stewart replaces John McGinn.
90' SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Samir El Mourabet replaces Azzedine Ounahi.
Lineups
Scotland
4-4-1-1
  • 1Angus Gunn G
  • 13Jack Hendry CD-L
  • 5Grant Hanley CD-R
  • 3Andy Robertson LB
  • 22Nathan Patterson RB
  • 19Lewis Ferguson CM-L
  • 11Ryan Christie CM-R
  • 6Kieran Tierney LM
  • 7John McGinn RM
  • 10Ché Adams F
  • 4Scott McTominay RCF
Subs: Ben Gannon-Doak, Lyndon Dykes, Kenny McLean, Anthony Ralston, Ross Stewart
Morocco
4-2-3-1
  • 1Yassine Bounou G
  • 18Chadi Riad CD-L
  • 14Issa Diop CD-R
  • 3Noussair Mazraoui LB
  • 2Achraf Hakimi RB
  • 8Azzedine Ounahi AM
  • 24Neil El Aynaoui LM
  • 6Ayyoub Bouaddi RM
  • 11Ismael Saibari F
  • 23Bilal El Khannouss AM-L
  • 10Brahim Díaz AM-R
Subs: Soufiane Rahimi, Chemsdine Talbi, Ayoube Amaimouni, Samir El Mourabet
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).