The favourite delivered: Morocco (59% pre-match) beat Scotland 1–0.
Expected goals race
ScotlandMorocco● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Scotland 1774, Morocco 1927. The model priced this Scotland 19% / draw 22% / Morocco 59%, most likely score 0–1. The model called it. The result moves 15 Elo points from Scotland to Morocco — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
2'GOALGoal! Scotland 0, Morocco 1. Ismael Saibari (Morocco) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Brahim Díaz with a through ball.
23'YELLOWIssa Diop (Morocco) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
60'SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Ben Gannon-Doak replaces Kieran Tierney because of an injury.
65'YELLOWAndy Robertson (Scotland) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.