World Cup 2026

← All matches
Matchday 11 · Group G · 2026-06-21
New Zealand
xG 3.04
HT 1–01 – 3
Egypt
xG 4.08
New Zealand Finn Surman 15′  ·  Egypt Mostafa Zico 58′, Mohamed Salah 67′, Trézéguet 82′
BC Place · 52,497 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Egypt (54% pre-match) beat New Zealand 3–1.

Expected goals race
12340′15′30′45′60′75′90′3.04Finn Surman 15′4.08Mostafa Zico 58′Mohamed Salah 67′Trezeguet 82′
New Zealand Egypt ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Mohamed Salah · 6′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedSarpreet Singh · 7′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetElijah Just · 14′ · xG 0.15 · Shot On TargetFinn Surman · 15′ · xG 0.38 · Goal - HeaderElijah Just · 19′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedCallum McCowatt · 19′ · xG 0.17 · Shot On TargetMohamed Hany · 20′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedMostafa Zico · 21′ · xG 0.32 · Shot Off TargetJoe Bell · 26′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedOmar Marmoush · 27′ · xG 0.10 · Shot On TargetChris Wood · 27′ · xG 0.24 · Shot Off TargetMohamed Salah · 35′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetEmam Ashour · 45'+1′ · xG 0.67 · Shot Off TargetMohamed Salah · 46′ · xG 0.32 · Shot On TargetOmar Marmoush · 47′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetMostafa Zico · 49′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedEmam Ashour · 50′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetOmar Marmoush · 50′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedCallum McCowatt · 52′ · xG 0.40 · Shot On TargetMostafa Zico · 55′ · xG 0.37 · Shot BlockedEmam Ashour · 55′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetMostafa Zico · 58′ · xG 0.30 · Goal - HeaderMarko Stamenic · 65′ · xG 0.04 · Shot BlockedMohamed Salah · 67′ · xG 0.22 · GoalAhmed Fatouh · 80′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetMohamed Salah · 81′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedTrezeguet · 82′ · xG 0.25 · Goal - HeaderZizo · 90'+3′ · xG 0.43 · Shot On TargetMichael Boxall · 90'+4′ · xG 0.57 · Shot Blocked? · 90'+4′ · xG 0.00 · Shot BlockedMarko Stamenic · 90'+8′ · xG 0.16 · Shot Off TargetTyler Bindon · 90'+8′ · xG 0.66 · Shot On Target
New Zealand (attacking →) Egypt (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
New Zealand  ·  match stats  ·  Egypt
44.3 Possession 55.7
12 Shots 19
5 On Target 7
4 Corners 4
14 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 0
4 Saves 4
2 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
New Zealand 22%draw 23%Egypt 54%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: New Zealand 1680, Egypt 1801. The model priced this New Zealand 22% / draw 23% / Egypt 54%, most likely score 1–1. The model called it. The result moves 25 Elo points from New Zealand to Egypt — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
15' GOALGoal! New Zealand 1, Egypt 0. Finn Surman (New Zealand) header from the centre of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Tim Payne with a cross following a corner.
17' YELLOWMohanad Lasheen (Egypt) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
20' YELLOWSarpreet Singh (New Zealand) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
34' YELLOWCallum McCowatt (New Zealand) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
41' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Ramy Rabia replaces Hamdi Fathy because of an injury.
58' GOALGoal! New Zealand 1, Egypt 1. Mostafa Zico (Egypt) header from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Mohamed Hany with a cross.
66' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Ben Old replaces Callum McCowatt.
67' GOALGoal! New Zealand 1, Egypt 2. Mohamed Salah (Egypt) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Mostafa Zico.
76' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Jesse Randall replaces Liberato Cacace.
76' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Ryan Thomas replaces Sarpreet Singh.
76' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Trezeguet replaces Omar Marmoush.
76' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Hamza Abdelkarim replaces Mostafa Zico.
82' GOALGoal! New Zealand 1, Egypt 3. Trezeguet (Egypt) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Mohamed Salah with a cross following a corner.
85' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Zizo replaces Emam Ashour.
85' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Hossam Abdelmaguid replaces Mohamed Salah.
85' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Tyler Bindon replaces Tim Payne.
85' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Francis de Vries replaces Elijah Just.
90'+9' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Mohamed Abdelmonem replaces Hossam Abdelmaguid because of an injury.
Lineups
New Zealand
4-2-3-1
  • 1Max Crocombe G
  • 5Michael Boxall CD-L
  • 16Finn Surman CD-R
  • 13Liberato Cacace LB
  • 2Tim Payne RB
  • 10Sarpreet Singh AM
  • 8Marko Stamenic LM
  • 6Joe Bell RM
  • 9Chris Wood F
  • 11Elijah Just AM-L
  • 20Callum McCowatt AM-R
Subs: Ben Old, Jesse Randall, Ryan Thomas, Tyler Bindon, Francis de Vries
Egypt
4-2-3-1
  • 23Mostafa Shoubir G
  • 14Hamdy Fathy CD-L
  • 2Yasser Ibrahim CD-R
  • 13Ahmed Fatouh LB
  • 3Mohamed Hany RB
  • 10Mohamed Salah AM
  • 17Mohanad Lashin LM
  • 19Marawan Attia RM
  • 22Omar Marmoush F
  • 8Emam Ashour AM-L
  • 11Mostafa Zico AM-R
Subs: Ramy Rabia, Trézéguet, Hamza Abdelkarim, Zizo, Hossam Abdelmaguid, Mohamed Abdelmoneim
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).