World Cup 2026

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Round of 16 · Knockout · 2026-07-04
Canada
xG 1.86
HT 0–00 – 3
Morocco
xG 0.86
Morocco Azzedine Ounahi 50′, Azzedine Ounahi 82′, Soufiane Rahimi 90+8′
NRG Stadium · 68,777 attendance
The story

Morocco made a statement — a 3–0 dismantling of Canada. The xG race tells a different story though: Canada created more (1.86 vs 0.86) and will feel hard done by. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
0.511.520′15′30′45′60′75′90′1.870.86Azzedine Ounahi 50′Azzedine Ounahi 82′Soufiane Rahimi 90′
Canada Morocco ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Jonathan David · 5′ · xG 0.20 · Shot On TargetTani Oluwaseyi · 10′ · xG 0.32 · Shot On TargetTani Oluwaseyi · 11′ · xG 0.24 · Shot Off TargetAlistair Johnston · 18′ · xG 0.23 · Shot BlockedSoufiane Rahimi · 28′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetLuc De Fougerolles · 49′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetAzzedine Ounahi · 50′ · xG 0.15 · GoalJonathan David · 78′ · xG 0.16 · Shot Off TargetTajon Buchanan · 79′ · xG 0.05 · Shot On TargetAzzedine Ounahi · 82′ · xG 0.22 · GoalJonathan David · 84′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Blocked? · 85′ · xG 0.21 · Shot Hit WoodworkJonathan Osorio · 90′ · xG 0.17 · Shot BlockedJayden Nelson · 90'+6′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetSoufiane Rahimi · 90'+8′ · xG 0.21 · Goal
Canada (attacking →) Morocco (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Canada  ·  match stats  ·  Morocco
44.6 Possession 55.4
10 Shots 5
3 On Target 4
11 Corners 1
24 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 3
1 Saves 3
4 Yellows 4
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Canada 18%draw 22%Morocco 61%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Canada 1813, Morocco 1980. The model priced this Canada 18% / draw 22% / Morocco 61%, most likely score 0–1. The model called it. The result moves 24 Elo points from Canada to Morocco — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
20' YELLOWRedouane Halhal (Morocco) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
22' SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Soufiane Rahimi replaces Ismael Saibari because of an injury.
40' YELLOWAchraf Hakimi (Morocco) is shown the yellow card.
40' YELLOWRichie Laryea (Canada) is shown the yellow card.
43' YELLOWJonathan David (Canada) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
45' YELLOWAzzedine Ounahi (Morocco) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
45'+6' YELLOWBilal El Khannouss (Morocco) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
49' YELLOWLuc De Fougerolles (Canada) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
50' GOALGoal! Canada 0, Morocco 1. Azzedine Ounahi (Morocco) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Achraf Hakimi following a set piece situation.
63' SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Chemsdine Talbi replaces Bilal El Khannouss.
63' SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Sofyan Amrabat replaces Ayyoub Bouaddi.
63' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Cyle Larin replaces Tani Oluwaseyi.
67' YELLOWCyle Larin (Canada) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
78' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Promise David replaces Ali Ahmed.
78' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Jacob Shaffelburg replaces Richie Laryea.
82' GOALGoal! Canada 0, Morocco 2. Azzedine Ounahi (Morocco) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Brahim Díaz following a fast break.
87' SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Marwane Saadane replaces Issa Diop.
87' SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Samir El Mourabet replaces Azzedine Ounahi.
87' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Jonathan Osorio replaces Niko Sigur.
87' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Jayden Nelson replaces Tajon Buchanan.
90'+8' GOALGoal! Canada 0, Morocco 3. Soufiane Rahimi (Morocco) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Brahim Díaz following a fast break.
Lineups
Canada
4-4-2
  • 16Maxime Crépeau G
  • 4Luc de Fougerolles CD-L
  • 15Moïse Bombito CD-R
  • 22Richie Laryea LB
  • 2Alistair Johnston RB
  • 7Stephen Eustáquio CM-L
  • 23Niko Sigur CM-R
  • 20Ali Ahmed LM
  • 17Tajon Buchanan RM
  • 12Tani Oluwaseyi CF-L
  • 10Jonathan David CF-R
Subs: Cyle Larin, Promise David, Jacob Shaffelburg, Jonathan Osorio, Jayden Nelson
Morocco
4-2-3-1
  • 1Yassine Bounou G
  • 25Redouane Halhal CD-L
  • 14Issa Diop CD-R
  • 3Noussair Mazraoui LB
  • 2Achraf Hakimi RB
  • 8Azzedine Ounahi AM
  • 24Neil El Aynaoui LM
  • 6Ayyoub Bouaddi RM
  • 11Ismael Saibari F
  • 23Bilal El Khannouss AM-L
  • 10Brahim Díaz AM-R
Subs: Soufiane Rahimi, Chemsdine Talbi, Sofyan Amrabat, Marwane Saadane, Samir El Mourabet
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).