World Cup 2026

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Matchday 16 · Group H · 2026-06-26
Uruguay
xG 0.63
HT 0–10 – 1
Spain
xG 1.21
Spain Álex Baena 42′
Estadio Akron · 45,065 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Spain (68% pre-match) beat Uruguay 1–0. Tempers frayed — 1 red card shown.

Expected goals race
0.510′15′30′45′60′75′90′0.631.21Álex Baena 42′
Uruguay Spain ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Lamine Yamal · 17′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedPau Cubarsí · 20′ · xG 0.39 · Shot Off TargetAgustín Canobbio · 32′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedRodrigo Bentancur · 36′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetDarwin Núñez · 39′ · xG 0.01 · Shot Off TargetÁlex Baena · 42′ · xG 0.23 · GoalMikel Oyarzabal · 45'+8′ · xG 0.04 · Shot Off TargetDani Olmo · 63′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetFederico Viñas · 64′ · xG 0.36 · Shot Off TargetNicolás de la Cruz · 85′ · xG 0.05 · Shot On Target? · 86′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Hit Woodwork
Uruguay (attacking →) Spain (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Uruguay  ·  match stats  ·  Spain
33 Possession 67
5 Shots 6
1 On Target 1
1 Corners 6
14 Fouls 14
5 Offsides 2
0 Saves 2
3 Yellows 1
1 Reds 0
What the model expected
Uruguay 13%draw 19%Spain 68%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Uruguay 1873, Spain 2089. The model priced this Uruguay 13% / draw 19% / Spain 68%, most likely score 0–2. The model called it. The result moves 11 Elo points from Uruguay to Spain — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
42' GOALGoal! Uruguay 0, Spain 1. Álex Baena (Spain) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Marcos Llorente with a cross.
45' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Nicolás de la Cruz replaces Manuel Ugarte because of an injury.
45' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Sergio Rochet replaces Fernando Muslera.
46' YELLOWÁlex Baena (Spain) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
54' YELLOWJuan Manuel Sanabria (Uruguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
57' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Federico Viñas replaces Federico Valverde.
58' YELLOWGuillermo Varela (Uruguay) is shown the yellow card.
60' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Fabián Ruiz replaces Pedri.
60' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Dani Olmo replaces Mikel Merino.
66' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Yéremy Pino replaces Álex Baena.
70' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Brian Rodríguez replaces Juan Manuel Sanabria.
76' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Nico Williams replaces Lamine Yamal.
76' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Ferran Torres replaces Mikel Oyarzabal.
90'+3' YELLOWNicolás de la Cruz (Uruguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+5' REDAgustín Canobbio (Uruguay) is shown the red card.
Lineups
Uruguay
4-1-4-1
  • 23Fernando Muslera G
  • 16Mathías Olivera CD-L
  • 3Sebastián Cáceres CD-R
  • 5Manuel Ugarte DM
  • 25Juan Manuel Sanabria LB
  • 13Guillermo Varela RB
  • 8Federico Valverde CM-L
  • 6Rodrigo Bentancur CM-R
  • 20Maxi Araújo LM
  • 14Agustín Canobbio RM
  • 9Darwin Núñez F
Subs: Nicolás de la Cruz, Sergio Rochet, Federico Viñas, Brian Rodríguez
Spain
4-2-3-1
  • 23Unai Simón G
  • 14Aymeric Laporte CD-L
  • 22Pau Cubarsí CD-R
  • 24Marc Cucurella LB
  • 5Marcos Llorente RB
  • 6Mikel Merino AM
  • 16Rodri LM
  • 20Pedri RM
  • 21Mikel Oyarzabal F
  • 15Álex Baena AM-L
  • 19Lamine Yamal AM-R
Subs: Fabián Ruiz, Dani Olmo, Yéremy Pino, Nico Williams, Ferran Torres
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).