Egypt 1–1 Iran — World Cup 2026

Matchday 16 · Group G · 2026-06-26

Egypt

xG 2.51

HT 1–11 – 1

Iran

xG 4.12

Egypt Mahmoud Saber 5′ · Iran Ramin Rezaeian 14′

Lumen Field · 66,925 attendance

The story

A 1–1 draw — the model had that at 26%.

Expected goals race

Egypt Iran ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map

Egypt (attacking →) Iran (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal

Egypt · match stats · Iran

61.4 Possession 38.6

15 Shots 13

3 On Target 4

8 Corners 2

11 Fouls 16

0 Offsides 3

2 Saves 2

3 Yellows 4

0 Reds 0

What the model expected

Pre-match Elo: Egypt 1826, Iran 1819. The model priced this Egypt 38% / draw 26% / Iran 36%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 0 Elo points from Egypt to Iran — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline

5' GOALGoal! Egypt 1, IR Iran 0. Mahmoud Saber (Egypt) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Trezeguet.

11' PEN SAVEDPenalty saved. Mehdi Taremi (IR Iran) right footed shot saved in the bottom right corner by Mostafa Shobeir (Egypt).

14' GOALGoal! Egypt 1, IR Iran 1. Ramin Rezaeian (IR Iran) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner.

14' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Yasser Ibrahim replaces Mohamed Abdelmonem because of an injury.

19' YELLOWHossein Kanani (IR Iran) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

20' YELLOWMahmoud Saber (Egypt) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

42' YELLOWYasser Ibrahim (Egypt) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

43' YELLOWAli Nemati (IR Iran) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

45' SUBSubstitution, IR Iran. Saleh Hardani replaces Hossein Kanani.

45' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Marwan Attia replaces Mahmoud Saber.

45' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Omar Marmoush replaces Emam Ashour.

57' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Zizo replaces Mohamed Salah.

67' SUBSubstitution, IR Iran. Shahriyar Moghanloo replaces Saman Ghoddos.

76' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Hamza Abdelkarim replaces Mostafa Zico.

79' YELLOWSaeid Ezatolahi (IR Iran) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

90'+1' SUBSubstitution, IR Iran. Alireza Jahanbakhsh replaces Mohammad Mohebbi.

90'+2' YELLOWMohanad Lasheen (Egypt) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

90'+4' YELLOWShoja Khalilzadeh (IR Iran) is shown the yellow card for excessive celebration.

Lineups

Egypt

4-2-3-1

23Mostafa Shoubir G
6Mohamed Abdelmoneim CD-L
5Ramy Rabia CD-R
13Ahmed Fatouh LB
3Mohamed Hany RB
10Mohamed Salah AM
21Mahmoud Saber LM
17Mohanad Lashin RM
11Mostafa Zico F
7Trézéguet AM-L
8Emam Ashour AM-R

Subs: Yasser Ibrahim, Marawan Attia, Omar Marmoush, Zizo, Hamza Abdelkarim

Iran

5-4-1

1Alireza Beiranvand G
4Shoja Khalilzadeh CD
19Ali Nemati CD-L
13Hossein Kanani CD-R
5Milad Mohammadi LB
23Ramin Rezaeian RB
6Saeid Ezatolahi CM-L
21Mohammad Ghorbani CM-R
8Mohammad Mohebbi LM
14Saman Ghoddos RM
9Mehdi Taremi F

Subs: Saleh Hardani, Shahriyar Moghanloo, Alireza Jahanbakhsh