The favourite delivered: Switzerland (53% pre-match) beat Algeria 2–0.
Expected goals race
SwitzerlandAlgeria● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Switzerland 1898, Algeria 1790. The model priced this Switzerland 53% / draw 24% / Algeria 24%, most likely score 1–1. The model called it. The result moves 26 Elo points from Algeria to Switzerland — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
10'GOALGoal! Switzerland 1, Algeria 0. Breel Embolo (Switzerland) left footed shot from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Johan Manzambi following a fast break.
36'YELLOWFarès Chaïbi (Algeria) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
46'GOALGoal! Switzerland 2, Algeria 0. Dan Ndoye (Switzerland) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner.