World Cup 2026

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Matchday 10 · Group F · 2026-06-20
Netherlands
xG 3.42
HT 2–05 – 1
Sweden
xG 2.38
Netherlands Brian Brobbey 5′, Brian Brobbey 17′, Cody Gakpo 47′, Cody Gakpo 54′, Crysencio Summerville 89′  ·  Sweden Anthony Elanga 59′
NRG Stadium · 68,777 attendance
The story

Netherlands made a statement — a 5–1 dismantling of Sweden. The decisive moment came late, in the 89th minute.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′3.42Brian Brobbey 5′Brian Brobbey 17′Cody Gakpo 47′Cody Gakpo 54′Crysencio Summerville 89′2.38Anthony Elanga 59′
Netherlands Sweden ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Brian Brobbey · 5′ · xG 0.77 · GoalViktor Gyökeres · 7′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetCody Gakpo · 11′ · xG 0.17 · Shot On TargetTijjani Reijnders · 15′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetBrian Brobbey · 17′ · xG 0.78 · GoalJesper Karlström · 27′ · xG 0.39 · Shot BlockedYasin Ayari · 31′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetViktor Gyökeres · 33′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetViktor Gyökeres · 37′ · xG 0.13 · Shot On TargetCody Gakpo · 38′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetYasin Ayari · 41′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off TargetViktor Gyökeres · 45'+3′ · xG 0.10 · Shot On TargetBenjamin Nygren · 45'+4′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetYasin Ayari · 45'+5′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetCody Gakpo · 47′ · xG 0.95 · GoalCody Gakpo · 50′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedYasin Ayari · 52′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedCody Gakpo · 54′ · xG 0.17 · GoalYasin Ayari · 57′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetRyan Gravenberch · 57′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetAnthony Elanga · 59′ · xG 0.20 · GoalAlexander Isak · 84′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetBesfort Zeneli · 85′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetCrysencio Summerville · 89′ · xG 0.15 · GoalViktor Gyökeres · 90'+1′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedGustaf Lagerbielke · 90'+6′ · xG 0.29 · Shot On Target
Netherlands (attacking →) Sweden (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Netherlands  ·  match stats  ·  Sweden
50.9 Possession 49.1
10 Shots 16
7 On Target 8
2 Corners 5
9 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 3
7 Saves 2
0 Yellows 3
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Netherlands 57%draw 23%Sweden 20%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Netherlands 1982, Sweden 1842. The model priced this Netherlands 57% / draw 23% / Sweden 20%, most likely score 1–0. The model called it. The result moves 29 Elo points from Sweden to Netherlands — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
5' GOALGoal! Netherlands 1, Sweden 0. Brian Brobbey (Netherlands) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Cody Gakpo with a cross.
17' GOALGoal! Netherlands 2, Sweden 0. Brian Brobbey (Netherlands) right footed shot from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Denzel Dumfries with a cross.
45' SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Crysencio Summerville replaces Donyell Malen.
47' GOALGoal! Netherlands 3, Sweden 0. Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) left footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Denzel Dumfries with a cross.
53' YELLOWGabriel Gudmundsson (Sweden) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
54' GOALGoal! Netherlands 4, Sweden 0. Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Crysencio Summerville following a fast break.
55' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Anthony Elanga replaces Alexander Bernhardsson.
56' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Besfort Zeneli replaces Jesper Karlström.
56' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Lucas Bergvall replaces Benjamin Nygren.
59' GOALGoal! Netherlands 4, Sweden 1. Anthony Elanga (Sweden) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Alexander Isak with a through ball following a fast break.
59' SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Teun Koopmeiners replaces Frenkie de Jong.
59' SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Guus Til replaces Tijjani Reijnders.
72' SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Memphis Depay replaces Brian Brobbey.
75' YELLOWYasin Ayari (Sweden) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
79' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Taha Ali replaces Yasin Ayari.
80' YELLOWLucas Bergvall (Sweden) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
89' GOALGoal! Netherlands 5, Sweden 1. Crysencio Summerville (Netherlands) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Memphis Depay.
90' SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Noa Lang replaces Cody Gakpo.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Elliot Stroud replaces Gabriel Gudmundsson.
Lineups
Netherlands
4-3-3
  • 1Bart Verbruggen G
  • 4Virgil van Dijk CD-L
  • 6Jan Paul van Hecke CD-R
  • 15Micky van de Ven LB
  • 22Denzel Dumfries RB
  • 21Frenkie de Jong CM
  • 14Tijjani Reijnders LM
  • 8Ryan Gravenberch RM
  • 19Brian Brobbey F
  • 11Cody Gakpo LF
  • 18Donyell Malen RF
Subs: Crysencio Summerville, Teun Koopmeiners, Guus Til, Memphis Depay, Noa Lang
Sweden
3-1-4-2
  • 23Kristoffer Nordfeldt G
  • 4Isak Hien CD
  • 3Victor Lindelöf CD-L
  • 2Gustaf Lagerbielke CD-R
  • 16Jesper Karlström SW
  • 18Yasin Ayari CM-L
  • 10Benjamin Nygren CM-R
  • 5Gabriel Gudmundsson LM
  • 21Alexander Bernhardsson RM
  • 9Alexander Isak CF-L
  • 17Viktor Gyökeres CF-R
Subs: Anthony Elanga, Besfort Zeneli, Lucas Bergvall, Taha Ali, Elliot Stroud
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).