World Cup 2026

← All matches
Matchday 11 · Group H · 2026-06-21
Uruguay
xG 3.21
HT 2–12 – 2
Cape Verde
xG 1.05
Uruguay Maxi Araújo 44′, Agustín Cano 45+6′  ·  Cape Verde Kevin Pina 21′, Hélio Varela 61′
Hard Rock Stadium · 64,003 attendance
The story

A 2–2 draw — the model had that at 19%.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′3.21Maxi Araújo 44′Agustín Canobbio 45′1.05Kevin Pina 21′Hélio Varela 61′
Uruguay Cape Verde ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Rodrigo Bentancur · 7′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Blocked? · 7′ · xG 0.00 · Shot BlockedFederico Valverde · 14′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetKevin Pina · 21′ · xG 0.05 · Goal - Free-kickFederico Valverde · 24′ · xG 0.04 · Shot BlockedFederico Valverde · 24′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedFederico Valverde · 28′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetManuel Ugarte · 33′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetFederico Valverde · 34′ · xG 0.04 · Shot Off TargetMaxi Araújo · 40′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off TargetSebastián Cáceres · 42′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedDiney Borges · 43′ · xG 0.00 · Shot Off TargetMaxi Araújo · 44′ · xG 0.61 · Goal - HeaderAgustín Canobbio · 45'+6′ · xG 0.59 · GoalSidny Cabral · 52′ · xG 0.04 · Shot Off TargetJamiro Monteiro · 59′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedHélio Varela · 61′ · xG 0.06 · Goal - VolleyJamiro Monteiro · 63′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetFederico Valverde · 67′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedPico Lopes · 76′ · xG 0.34 · Shot BlockedNicolás de la Cruz · 79′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetBrian Rodríguez · 86′ · xG 0.28 · Shot BlockedRodrigo Bentancur · 86′ · xG 0.23 · Shot BlockedFederico Valverde · 90′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetSidny Cabral · 90'+3′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedRyan Mendes · 90'+3′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedAgustín Canobbio · 90'+3′ · xG 0.17 · Shot BlockedLaros Duarte · 90'+4′ · xG 0.12 · Shot On TargetRyan Mendes · 90'+6′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedLaros Duarte · 90'+7′ · xG 0.04 · Shot On Target
Uruguay (attacking →) Cape Verde (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Uruguay  ·  match stats  ·  Cape Verde
65.3 Possession 34.7
17 Shots 12
2 On Target 4
11 Corners 4
11 Fouls 4
3 Offsides 0
2 Saves 0
2 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Uruguay 68%draw 19%Cape Verde 13%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Uruguay 1887, Cape Verde 1672. The model priced this Uruguay 68% / draw 19% / Cape Verde 13%, most likely score 2–0. Reality had other plans. The result moves 14 Elo points from Uruguay to Cape Verde — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
5' YELLOWSidny Cabral (Cabo Verde) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
20' YELLOWRodrigo Bentancur (Uruguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
21' GOALGoal! Uruguay 0, Cabo Verde 1. Kevin Pina (Cabo Verde) from a free kick with a right footed shot to the bottom right corner.
44' GOALGoal! Uruguay 1, Cabo Verde 1. Maxi Araújo (Uruguay) header from very close range to the centre of the goal.
45'+6' GOALGoal! Uruguay 2, Cabo Verde 1. Agustín Canobbio (Uruguay) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Maxi Araújo with a headed pass.
45' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Deroy Duarte replaces Telmo Arcanjo because of an injury.
58' YELLOWMathías Olivera (Uruguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
58' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Nuno da Costa replaces Gilson Benchimol.
58' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Hélio Varela replaces Garry Rodrigues.
61' GOALGoal! Uruguay 2, Cabo Verde 2. Hélio Varela (Cabo Verde) right footed shot from outside the box to the centre of the goal.
70' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Darwin Núñez replaces Federico Viñas.
70' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Nicolás de la Cruz replaces Manuel Ugarte.
71' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Laros Duarte replaces Kevin Pina because of an injury.
80' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Yannick Semedo replaces Jamiro Monteiro because of an injury.
81' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Brian Rodríguez replaces Maxi Araújo.
90'+3' YELLOWDiney Borges (Cabo Verde) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
Lineups
Uruguay
4-1-4-1
  • 23Fernando Muslera G
  • 16Mathías Olivera CD-L
  • 3Sebastián Cáceres CD-R
  • 5Manuel Ugarte DM
  • 25Juan Manuel Sanabria LB
  • 13Guillermo Varela RB
  • 8Federico Valverde CM-L
  • 6Rodrigo Bentancur CM-R
  • 20Maxi Araújo LM
  • 14Agustín Canobbio RM
  • 21Federico Viñas F
Subs: Darwin Núñez, Nicolás de la Cruz, Brian Rodríguez
Cape Verde
4-1-4-1
  • 1Vozinha G
  • 3Diney Borges CD-L
  • 4Pico Lopes CD-R
  • 6Kevin Pina DM
  • 13Sidny Lopes Cabral LB
  • 22Steven Moreira RB
  • 10Jamiro Monteiro CM-L
  • 18Telmo Arcanjo CM-R
  • 11Garry Rodrigues LM
  • 20Ryan Mendes RM
  • 9Gilson Benchimol F
Subs: Deroy Duarte, Nuno da Costa, Hélio Varela, Laros Duarte, Yannick Semedo
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).