World Cup 2026

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Matchday 2 · Group D · 2026-06-12
USA
xG 0.00
HT 3–04 – 1
Paraguay
xG 4.56
USA Damian Bobadilla 7′ (o.g.), Folarin Balogun 31′, Folarin Balogun 45+5′, Giovanni Reyna 90+8′  ·  Paraguay Mauricio 73′
SoFi Stadium · 70,492 attendance
The story

USA made a statement — a 4–1 dismantling of Paraguay. The xG race tells a different story though: Paraguay created more (4.56 vs 0.00) and will feel hard done by. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
123450′15′30′45′60′75′90′0.004.56Folarin Balogun 31′Folarin Balogun 45′Mauricio 73′Giovanni Reyna 90′
USA Paraguay ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Diego Gómez · 2′ · xG 0.18 · Shot Off TargetFolarin Balogun · 3′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetJulio Enciso · 14′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetFolarin Balogun · 31′ · xG 0.24 · GoalFolarin Balogun · 35′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetMalik Tillman · 37′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedChris Richards · 37′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetMalik Tillman · 43′ · xG 0.59 · Shot On TargetFolarin Balogun · 45'+5′ · xG 0.25 · GoalFolarin Balogun · 47′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedMiguel Almirón · 48′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedDiego Gómez · 49′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedDiego Gómez · 50′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedMalik Tillman · 57′ · xG 0.22 · Shot BlockedMalik Tillman · 61′ · xG 0.24 · Shot Off TargetJulio Enciso · 65′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedDiego Gómez · 65′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetMiguel Almirón · 71′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedMauricio · 73′ · xG 0.26 · GoalMalik Tillman · 75′ · xG 0.24 · Shot On TargetTimothy Weah · 77′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetRicardo Pepi · 89′ · xG 0.32 · Shot Off TargetSebastian Berhalter · 90′ · xG 0.03 · Shot Off TargetTimothy Weah · 90'+7′ · xG 0.04 · Shot BlockedGiovanni Reyna · 90'+8′ · xG 0.17 · Goal
USA (attacking →) Paraguay (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
USA  ·  match stats  ·  Paraguay
65.1 Possession 34.9
16 Shots 9
6 On Target 1
3 Corners 1
13 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 1
1 Saves 3
1 Yellows 5
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
USA 53%draw 24%Paraguay 23%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: USA 1840, Paraguay 1780. The model priced this USA 53% / draw 24% / Paraguay 23%, most likely score 1–1. The model called it. The result moves 30 Elo points from Paraguay to USA — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
7' GOALOwn Goal by Damián Bobadilla, Paraguay. USA 1, Paraguay 0.
10' YELLOWJuan José Cáceres (Paraguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
31' GOALGoal! USA 2, Paraguay 0. Folarin Balogun (USA) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Christian Pulisic.
45'+5' GOALGoal! USA 3, Paraguay 0. Folarin Balogun (USA) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Malik Tillman.
45' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Mauricio replaces Damián Bobadilla.
45' SUBSubstitution, USA. Sebastian Berhalter replaces Christian Pulisic.
53' YELLOWMiguel Almirón (Paraguay) is shown the yellow card.
59' YELLOWTyler Adams (USA) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
62' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Álex Arce replaces Antonio Sanabria.
72' SUBSubstitution, USA. Timothy Weah replaces Sergiño Dest.
72' SUBSubstitution, USA. Ricardo Pepi replaces Folarin Balogun.
73' GOALGoal! USA 3, Paraguay 1. Mauricio (Paraguay) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Julio Enciso following a set piece situation.
79' YELLOWDiego Gómez (Paraguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
79' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Ramón Sosa replaces Miguel Almirón.
79' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Gustavo Velázquez replaces Juan José Cáceres.
80' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Alejandro Romero replaces Diego Gómez.
82' SUBSubstitution, USA. Giovanni Reyna replaces Malik Tillman.
88' YELLOWÁlex Arce (Paraguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+3' YELLOWJúnior Alonso (Paraguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+8' GOALGoal! USA 4, Paraguay 1. Giovanni Reyna (USA) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Alex Freeman.
Lineups
United States
4-2-3-1
  • 24Matt Freese G
  • 13Tim Ream CD-L
  • 3Chris Richards CD-R
  • 5Antonee Robinson LB
  • 16Alex Freeman RB
  • 8Weston McKennie AM
  • 17Malik Tillman LM
  • 4Tyler Adams RM
  • 20Folarin Balogun F
  • 10Christian Pulisic AM-L
  • 2Sergiño Dest AM-R
Subs: Sebastian Berhalter, Timothy Weah, Ricardo Pepi, Giovanni Reyna
Paraguay
4-4-2
  • 12Orlando Gil G
  • 3Omar Alderete CD-L
  • 15Gustavo Gómez CD-R
  • 6Júnior Alonso LB
  • 4Juan Jose Cáceres RB
  • 16Damián Bobadilla CM-L
  • 14Andrés Cubas CM-R
  • 10Miguel Almirón LM
  • 8Diego Gómez RM
  • 19Julio Enciso CF-L
  • 9Antonio Sanabria CF-R
Subs: Maurício, Alex Arce, Ramón Sosa, Gustavo Velázquez, Alejandro Romero Gamarra
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).