World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-07-02
Spain
xG 4.71
HT 1–03 – 0
Austria
xG 1.01
Spain Mikel Oyarzabal 36′, Mikel Oyarzabal 89′, Pedro Porro 66′
SoFi Stadium · 70,492 attendance
The story

Spain made a statement — a 3–0 dismantling of Austria. The decisive moment came late, in the 89th minute.

Expected goals race
123450′15′30′45′60′75′90′4.71Mikel Oyarzabal 36′Pedro Porro 66′Mikel Oyarzabal 89′1.01
Spain Austria ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Lamine Yamal · 1′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetDani Olmo · 7′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedAymeric Laporte · 8′ · xG 0.49 · Shot Off TargetLamine Yamal · 32′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetMikel Oyarzabal · 33′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetDavid Alaba · 35′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetMikel Oyarzabal · 36′ · xG 0.34 · GoalLamine Yamal · 38′ · xG 0.10 · Shot On TargetMikel Oyarzabal · 39′ · xG 0.23 · Shot BlockedAymeric Laporte · 42′ · xG 0.01 · Shot Off TargetNicolas Seiwald · 45′ · xG 0.17 · Shot BlockedÁlex Baena · 45'+2′ · xG 0.05 · Shot On TargetLamine Yamal · 45'+2′ · xG 0.53 · Shot On TargetMikel Oyarzabal · 49′ · xG 0.12 · Shot On TargetMikel Oyarzabal · 52′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off TargetRodri · 54′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedÁlex Baena · 58′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedLamine Yamal · 59′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedSasa Kalajdzic · 61′ · xG 0.36 · Shot Off TargetDani Olmo · 62′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedDani Olmo · 66′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedPedro Porro · 66′ · xG 0.37 · Goal - HeaderFerran Torres · 78′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetCarney Chukwuemeka · 79′ · xG 0.16 · Shot Off TargetStefan Posch · 82′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Off TargetLamine Yamal · 85′ · xG 0.45 · Shot BlockedMikel Oyarzabal · 89′ · xG 0.39 · GoalFerran Torres · 90'+4′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off Target
Spain (attacking →) Austria (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Spain  ·  match stats  ·  Austria
64.4 Possession 35.6
23 Shots 5
10 On Target 0
9 Corners 0
8 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 5
0 Saves 6
0 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Spain 74%draw 16%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Spain 2100, Austria 1835. The model priced this Spain 74% / draw 16% / Austria 10%, most likely score 2–0. The model called it. The result moves 16 Elo points from Austria to Spain — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
36' GOALGoal! Spain 1, Austria 0. Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Marc Cucurella with a cross.
45' SUBSubstitution, Austria. Florian Grillitsch replaces Xaver Schlager.
45' SUBSubstitution, Austria. Carney Chukwuemeka replaces Nicolas Seiwald.
60' SUBSubstitution, Austria. Sasa Kalajdzic replaces Romano Schmid.
60' SUBSubstitution, Austria. Marko Arnautovic replaces Michael Gregoritsch.
66' GOALGoal! Spain 2, Austria 0. Pedro Porro (Spain) header from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Álex Baena.
71' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Ferran Torres replaces Álex Baena.
71' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Mikel Merino replaces Dani Olmo.
83' YELLOWStefan Posch (Austria) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
85' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Gavi replaces Lamine Yamal.
85' SUBSubstitution, Austria. Alexander Prass replaces Stefan Posch.
89' GOALGoal! Spain 3, Austria 0. Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Marc Cucurella.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Fabián Ruiz replaces Pedri.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Marc Pubill replaces Aymeric Laporte.
Lineups
Spain
4-2-3-1
  • 23Unai Simón G
  • 14Aymeric Laporte CD-L
  • 22Pau Cubarsí CD-R
  • 24Marc Cucurella LB
  • 12Pedro Porro RB
  • 10Dani Olmo AM
  • 20Pedri LM
  • 16Rodri RM
  • 21Mikel Oyarzabal F
  • 15Álex Baena AM-L
  • 19Lamine Yamal AM-R
Subs: Ferran Torres, Mikel Merino, Gavi, Fabián Ruiz, Marc Pubill
Austria
4-2-3-1
  • 1Alexander Schlager G
  • 8David Alaba CD-L
  • 3Kevin Danso CD-R
  • 20Konrad Laimer LB
  • 5Stefan Posch RB
  • 24Paul Wanner AM
  • 4Xaver Schlager LM
  • 6Nicolas Seiwald RM
  • 11Michael Gregoritsch F
  • 9Marcel Sabitzer AM-L
  • 18Romano Schmid AM-R
Subs: Florian Grillitsch, Carney Chukwuemeka, Sasa Kalajdzic, Marko Arnautovic, Alexander Prass
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).