France Kylian Mbappé 66′, Kylian Mbappé 90+6′, Bradley Barcola 82′ · Senegal Ibrahim Mbaye 90+5′
MetLife Stadium · 80,545 attendance
The story
The favourite delivered: France (67% pre-match) beat Senegal 3–1. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.
Expected goals race
FranceSenegal● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Shot map
France (attacking →)Senegal (attacking ←)size = xG · star = goal
France · match stats · Senegal
53.4Possession46.6
11Shots6
8On Target2
6Corners4
5Fouls9
1Offsides3
2Saves5
0Yellows0
0Reds0
What the model expected
Pre-match Elo: France 2050, Senegal 1840. The model priced this France 67% / draw 19% / Senegal 14%, most likely score 2–0. The model called it. The result moves 17 Elo points from Senegal to France — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
66'GOALGoal! France 1, Senegal 0. Kylian Mbappé (France) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Michael Olise with a through ball.
75'SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Ibrahim Mbaye replaces Ismaïla Sarr.
80'SUBSubstitution, France. Bradley Barcola replaces Ousmane Dembélé.
82'GOALGoal! France 2, Senegal 0. Bradley Barcola (France) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Adrien Rabiot with a through ball following a fast break.
83'SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Iliman Ndiaye replaces Pape Gueye.
83'SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Bamba Dieng replaces Nicolas Jackson.
87'SUBSubstitution, France. Rayan Cherki replaces Désiré Doué.
90'+5'GOALGoal! France 2, Senegal 1. Ibrahim Mbaye (Senegal) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Iliman Ndiaye following a fast break.
90'+6'GOALGoal! France 3, Senegal 1. Kylian Mbappé (France) right footed shot from outside the box to the top left corner.