A mild upset: Mexico (49% pre-match) got past South Korea. The xG race tells a different story though: South Korea created more (2.00 vs 1.45) and will feel hard done by.
Expected goals race
MexicoSouth Korea● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Shot map
Mexico (attacking →)South Korea (attacking ←)size = xG · star = goal
Mexico · match stats · South Korea
42.3Possession57.7
8Shots9
4On Target2
1Corners2
9Fouls7
3Offsides6
2Saves3
0Yellows2
0Reds0
What the model expected
Pre-match Elo: Mexico 1879, South Korea 1841. The model priced this Mexico 49% / draw 25% / South Korea 26%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 19 Elo points from South Korea to Mexico — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
4'YELLOWLee Kang-In (Korea Republic) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
50'GOALGoal! Mexico 1, Korea Republic 0. Luis Romo (Mexico) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal.
57'SUBSubstitution, Korea Republic. Hwang Hee-Chan replaces Lee Jae-Sung.
57'SUBSubstitution, Korea Republic. Oh Hyeon-Gyu replaces Son Heung-Min.
58'YELLOWPaik Seung-Ho (Korea Republic) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
71'SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Orbelín Pineda replaces Brian Gutiérrez.
71'SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Obed Vargas replaces Luis Romo.
71'SUBSubstitution, Korea Republic. Eom Ji-Sung replaces Kim Moon-Hwan.
71'SUBSubstitution, Korea Republic. Yang Hyun-Jun replaces Seol Young-Woo.
77'SUBSubstitution, Korea Republic. Cho Gue-Sung replaces Paik Seung-Ho.
80'SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Israel Reyes replaces Roberto Alvarado.
80'SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Santiago Giménez replaces Raúl Jiménez.