Argentina 3–2 Egypt — World Cup 2026

Round of 16 · Knockout · 2026-07-07

Argentina

xG 5.00

HT 0–13 – 2

Egypt

xG 1.39

Argentina Cristian Romero 79′, Lionel Messi 83′, Enzo Fernández 90+2′ · Egypt Yasser Ibrahim 15′, Mostafa Zico 67′

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · 68,239 attendance

The story

The favourite delivered: Argentina (78% pre-match) beat Egypt 3–2. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race

Argentina Egypt ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map

Argentina (attacking →) Egypt (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal

Argentina · match stats · Egypt

63.6 Possession 36.4

19 Shots 5

7 On Target 2

6 Corners 1

13 Fouls 11

3 Offsides 0

0 Saves 4

0 Yellows 4

0 Reds 0

What the model expected

Pre-match Elo: Argentina 2150, Egypt 1848. The model priced this Argentina 78% / draw 14% / Egypt 8%, most likely score 2–0. The model called it. The result moves 8 Elo points from Egypt to Argentina — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline

15' GOALGoal! Argentina 0, Egypt 1. Yasser Ibrahim (Egypt) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Marwan Attia with a cross following a corner.

21' PEN SAVEDPenalty saved. Lionel Messi (Argentina) left footed shot saved in the bottom right corner by Mostafa Shobeir (Egypt).

45' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Hamdi Fathy replaces Emam Ashour because of an injury.

66' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Nico González replaces Nicolás Tagliafico.

66' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Lautaro Martínez replaces Rodrigo De Paul.

67' GOALGoal! Argentina 0, Egypt 2. Mostafa Zico (Egypt) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Haissem Hassan following a fast break.

73' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Gonzalo Montiel replaces Nahuel Molina.

73' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Trezeguet replaces Haissem Hassan because of an injury.

79' GOALGoal! Argentina 1, Egypt 2. Cristian Romero (Argentina) header from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Lionel Messi with a cross.

80' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Omar Marmoush replaces Mostafa Zico.

83' GOALGoal! Argentina 2, Egypt 2. Lionel Messi (Argentina) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Gonzalo Montiel.

90'+2' GOALGoal! Argentina 3, Egypt 2. Enzo Fernández (Argentina) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Lautaro Martínez with a cross following a fast break.

90'+3' YELLOWMostafa Shobeir (Egypt) is shown the yellow card.

90'+4' YELLOWHamdi Fathy (Egypt) is shown the yellow card.

90'+5' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Facundo Medina replaces Julián Alvarez.

90'+5' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Nicolás Otamendi replaces Cristian Romero.

90'+6' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Zizo replaces Mohanad Lasheen.

90'+8' YELLOWMarwan Attia (Egypt) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

90'+12' YELLOWHaissem Hassan (Egypt) is shown the yellow card.

Lineups

Argentina

4-1-3-2

23Emiliano Martínez G
6Lisandro Martínez CD-L
13Cristian Romero CD-R
5Leandro Paredes SW
3Nicolás Tagliafico LB
26Nahuel Molina RB
20Alexis Mac Allister CM
24Enzo Fernández LM
7Rodrigo De Paul RM
9Julián Álvarez CF-L
10Lionel Messi CF-R

Subs: Nico González, Lautaro Martínez, Gonzalo Montiel, Facundo Medina, Nicolás Otamendi

Egypt

4-4-2

23Mostafa Shoubir G
5Ramy Rabia CD-L
2Yasser Ibrahim CD-R
15Karim Hafez LB
3Mohamed Hany RB
19Marawan Attia CM-L
17Mohanad Lashin CM-R
8Emam Ashour LM
12Haissem Hassan RM
11Mostafa Zico CF-L
10Mohamed Salah CF-R

Subs: Hamdy Fathy, Trézéguet, Omar Marmoush, Zizo