World Cup 2026

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Round of 16 · Knockout · 2026-07-06
Portugal
xG 1.95
HT 0–00 – 1
Spain
xG 1.95
Spain Mikel Merino 90+1′
AT&T Stadium · 70,649 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Spain (50% pre-match) beat Portugal 1–0. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
0.511.520′15′30′45′60′75′90′1.951.95Mikel Merino 90′
Portugal Spain ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Mikel Oyarzabal · 3′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetJoão Cancelo · 7′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetMikel Oyarzabal · 8′ · xG 0.21 · Shot Off TargetPedro Neto · 10′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedCristiano Ronaldo · 12′ · xG 0.15 · Shot On TargetÁlex Baena · 14′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetLamine Yamal · 16′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetÁlex Baena · 16′ · xG 0.13 · Shot On TargetPedro Porro · 23′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetDani Olmo · 31′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Off TargetCristiano Ronaldo · 37′ · xG 0.53 · Shot On TargetNuno Mendes · 41′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedRodri · 45′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetCristiano Ronaldo · 59′ · xG 0.24 · Shot Off TargetPedri · 61′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedLamine Yamal · 62′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedÁlex Baena · 65′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetLamine Yamal · 73′ · xG 0.05 · Shot On TargetVitinha · 76′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedBruno Fernandes · 76′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Off TargetFerran Torres · 77′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetDani Olmo · 78′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedMikel Merino · 90'+1′ · xG 0.27 · GoalBernardo Silva · 90'+7′ · xG 0.39 · Shot Off TargetJoão Neves · 90'+9′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off Target
Portugal (attacking →) Spain (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Portugal  ·  match stats  ·  Spain
44.6 Possession 55.4
10 Shots 15
2 On Target 6
3 Corners 7
9 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 1
5 Saves 2
2 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Portugal 25%draw 24%Spain 50%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Portugal 2021, Spain 2116. The model priced this Portugal 25% / draw 24% / Spain 50%, most likely score 1–1. The model called it. The result moves 18 Elo points from Portugal to Spain — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
56' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Nélson Semedo replaces Nuno Mendes because of an injury.
71' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Diogo Dalot replaces João Cancelo.
71' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Rafael Leão replaces João Félix.
75' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Ferran Torres replaces Álex Baena.
83' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Francisco Conceição replaces Pedro Neto.
83' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Bernardo Silva replaces Vitinha.
85' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Fabián Ruiz replaces Pedri.
85' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Mikel Merino replaces Dani Olmo.
89' YELLOWBernardo Silva (Portugal) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+1' GOALGoal! Portugal 0, Spain 1. Mikel Merino (Spain) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Ferran Torres with a through ball.
90'+4' YELLOWRenato Veiga (Portugal) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+7' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Borja Iglesias replaces Mikel Oyarzabal.
90'+8' YELLOWFerran Torres (Spain) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
Lineups
Portugal
4-2-3-1
  • 1Diogo Costa G
  • 13Renato Veiga CD-L
  • 3Rúben Dias CD-R
  • 25Nuno Mendes LB
  • 20João Cancelo RB
  • 8Bruno Fernandes AM
  • 15João Neves LM
  • 23Vitinha RM
  • 7Cristiano Ronaldo F
  • 11João Félix AM-L
  • 18Pedro Neto AM-R
Subs: Nélson Semedo, Diogo Dalot, Rafael Leão, Francisco Conceição, Bernardo Silva
Spain
4-2-3-1
  • 23Unai Simón G
  • 14Aymeric Laporte CD-L
  • 22Pau Cubarsí CD-R
  • 24Marc Cucurella LB
  • 12Pedro Porro RB
  • 10Dani Olmo AM
  • 20Pedri LM
  • 16Rodri RM
  • 21Mikel Oyarzabal F
  • 15Álex Baena AM-L
  • 19Lamine Yamal AM-R
Subs: Ferran Torres, Fabián Ruiz, Mikel Merino, Borja Iglesias
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).