World Cup 2026

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Matchday 9 · Group D · 2026-06-19
Turkey
xG 0.00
HT 0–10 – 1
Paraguay
xG 6.06
Paraguay Matías Galarza 2′
Levi's Stadium · 68,827 attendance
The story

A genuine shock — the model gave Paraguay just 30% before kick-off, and they beat Turkey anyway. The xG race (6.06 vs 0.00) says it was as one-sided as the scoreline suggests. Tempers frayed — 1 red card shown.

Expected goals race
1234560′15′30′45′60′75′90′0.006.06Matías Galarza 2′
Turkey Paraguay ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Matías Galarza · 2′ · xG 0.09 · GoalOmar Alderete · 11′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off TargetDiego Gómez · 11′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetArda Güler · 13′ · xG 0.19 · Shot Off TargetKenan Yildiz · 15′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedHakan Çalhanoglu · 21′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedHakan Çalhanoglu · 23′ · xG 0.04 · Shot BlockedArda Güler · 25′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedKenan Yildiz · 30′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetMert Müldür · 35′ · xG 0.28 · Shot BlockedKenan Yildiz · 36′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedJuan José Cáceres · 37′ · xG 0.13 · Shot On TargetHakan Çalhanoglu · 45′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedIsmail Yüksek · 45'+6′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetIsmail Yüksek · 45'+8′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetAbdülkerim Bardakci · 45'+9′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedHakan Çalhanoglu · 45'+10′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedMerih Demiral · 47′ · xG 0.04 · Shot On TargetKenan Yildiz · 48′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetHakan Çalhanoglu · 57′ · xG 0.24 · Shot Off TargetMerih Demiral · 59′ · xG 0.05 · Shot On TargetJulio Enciso · 60′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetDeniz Gül · 62′ · xG 0.36 · Shot On TargetKenan Yildiz · 62′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetMerih Demiral · 65′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetBaris Alper Yilmaz · 72′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetMert Müldür · 75′ · xG 0.33 · Shot BlockedHakan Çalhanoglu · 76′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedMert Müldür · 78′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Off TargetMerih Demiral · 80′ · xG 0.32 · Shot Off TargetCan Uzun · 82′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetArda Güler · 86′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedGustavo Gómez · 89′ · xG 0.26 · Shot BlockedCan Uzun · 89′ · xG 0.25 · Shot On TargetDeniz Gül · 89′ · xG 0.50 · Shot Off TargetMatías Galarza · 90′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedKenan Yildiz · 90'+6′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedCan Uzun · 90'+7′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedMerih Demiral · 90'+7′ · xG 0.30 · Shot Off TargetHakan Çalhanoglu · 90'+9′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off Target
Turkey (attacking →) Paraguay (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Turkey  ·  match stats  ·  Paraguay
78.5 Possession 21.5
32 Shots 7
5 On Target 2
12 Corners 0
14 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 3
1 Saves 5
1 Yellows 1
0 Reds 1
What the model expected
Turkey 45%draw 25%Paraguay 30%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Turkey 1805, Paraguay 1750. The model priced this Turkey 45% / draw 25% / Paraguay 30%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 29 Elo points from Turkey to Paraguay — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
2' GOALGoal! Türkiye 0, Paraguay 1. Matías Galarza (Paraguay) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Julio Enciso.
4' YELLOWMatías Galarza (Paraguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
45'+3' REDMiguel Almirón (Paraguay) is shown the red card.
45' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Damián Bobadilla replaces Isidro Pitta.
45' SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Baris Alper Yilmaz replaces Kerem Aktürkoglu.
60' SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Can Uzun replaces Ismail Yüksek.
60' SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Deniz Gül replaces Yunus Akgün.
67' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Gustavo Velázquez replaces Diego Gómez because of an injury.
70' SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Eren Elmali replaces Ferdi Kadioglu.
71' YELLOWEren Elmali (Türkiye) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
81' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Alexandro Maidana replaces Juan José Cáceres.
86' SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Orkun Kökçü replaces Abdülkerim Bardakci.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Gabriel Ávalos replaces Julio Enciso because of an injury.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. José Canale replaces Matías Galarza because of an injury.
Lineups
Türkiye
4-2-3-1
  • 23Ugurcan Çakir G
  • 14Abdülkerim Bardakçi CD-L
  • 3Merih Demiral CD-R
  • 20Ferdi Kadioglu LB
  • 18Mert Müldür RB
  • 8Arda Güler AM
  • 16Ismail Yüksek LM
  • 10Hakan Çalhanoglu RM
  • 7Kerem Aktürkoglu F
  • 11Kenan Yildiz AM-L
  • 19Yunus Akgün AM-R
Subs: Baris Alper Yilmaz, Can Uzun, Deniz Gül, Eren Elmali, Orkun Kökçü
Paraguay
4-4-2
  • 12Orlando Gil G
  • 3Omar Alderete CD-L
  • 15Gustavo Gómez CD-R
  • 6Júnior Alonso LB
  • 4Juan Jose Cáceres RB
  • 8Diego Gómez CM-L
  • 14Andrés Cubas CM-R
  • 23Matías Galarza LM
  • 10Miguel Almirón RM
  • 19Julio Enciso CF-L
  • 25Isidro Pitta CF-R
Subs: Damián Bobadilla, Gustavo Velázquez, Alexandro Maidana, Gabriel Ávalos, José Canale
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).