The favourite delivered: Ivory Coast (60% pre-match) beat Curaçao 2–0.
Expected goals race
CuraçaoIvory Coast● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Curaçao 1639, Ivory Coast 1797. The model priced this Curaçao 18% / draw 22% / Ivory Coast 60%, most likely score 0–1. The model called it. The result moves 22 Elo points from Curaçao to Ivory Coast — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
7'GOALGoal! Curaçao 0, Côte d'Ivoire 1. Nicolas Pépé (Côte d'Ivoire) left footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Yan Diomande.
35'YELLOWNicolas Pépé (Côte d'Ivoire) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
61'SUBSubstitution, Curaçao. Jeremy Antonisse replaces Livano Comenencia.
64'GOALGoal! Curaçao 0, Côte d'Ivoire 2. Nicolas Pépé (Côte d'Ivoire) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Ibrahim Sangaré.