The favourite delivered: France (78% pre-match) beat Paraguay 1–0. The xG race (2.35 vs 0.43) says it was as one-sided as the scoreline suggests.
Expected goals race
ParaguayFrance● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Paraguay 1816, France 2112. The model priced this Paraguay 8% / draw 14% / France 78%, most likely score 0–2. The model called it. The result moves 8 Elo points from Paraguay to France — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
19'YELLOWBradley Barcola (France) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
58'SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. José Canale replaces Omar Alderete because of an injury.
61'SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Gustavo Caballero replaces Julio Enciso because of an injury.
61'SUBSubstitution, France. Désiré Doué replaces Bradley Barcola.
70'PEN GOALGoal! Paraguay 0, France 1. Kylian Mbappé (France) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom right corner.
71'SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Mauricio replaces Diego Gómez.
71'SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Gabriel Ávalos replaces Miguel Almirón.
81'YELLOWManu Koné (France) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
84'SUBSubstitution, France. Rayan Cherki replaces Ousmane Dembélé.
90'+7'YELLOWMichael Olise (France) is shown the yellow card.
Lineups
Paraguay
5-4-1
12Orlando Gill G
15Gustavo Gómez CD
3Omar Alderete CD-L
2Gustavo Velázquez CD-R
6Júnior Alonso LB
4Juan Jose Cáceres RB
14Andrés Cubas CM-L
8Diego Gómez CM-R
23Matías Galarza LM
10Miguel Almirón RM
19Julio Enciso F
Subs: José Canale, Gustavo Caballero, Maurício, Gabriel Ávalos