Brazil Vinícius Júnior 32′ · Morocco Ismael Saibari 21′
MetLife Stadium · 80,663 attendance
The story
A 1–1 draw — the model had that at 24%.
Expected goals race
BrazilMorocco● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Shot map
Brazil (attacking →)Morocco (attacking ←)size = xG · star = goal
Brazil · match stats · Morocco
51.3Possession48.7
12Shots14
5On Target3
6Corners2
16Fouls14
0Offsides1
2Saves4
2Yellows0
0Reds0
What the model expected
Pre-match Elo: Brazil 2020, Morocco 1920. The model priced this Brazil 51% / draw 24% / Morocco 24%, most likely score 1–1. Reality had other plans. The result moves 7 Elo points from Brazil to Morocco — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
21'GOALGoal! Brazil 0, Morocco 1. Ismael Saibari (Morocco) right footed shot from outside the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Brahim Díaz with a through ball following a fast break.
32'GOALGoal! Brazil 1, Morocco 1. Vinícius Júnior (Brazil) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Bruno Guimarães.
37'YELLOWCasemiro (Brazil) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
43'YELLOWRoger Ibañez (Brazil) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
45'SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Danilo replaces Roger Ibañez.