World Cup 2026

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Matchday 3 · Group C · 2026-06-13
Haiti
xG 2.48
HT 0–10 – 1
Scotland
xG 2.65
Scotland John McGinn 28′
Gillette Stadium · 64,146 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Scotland (60% pre-match) beat Haiti 1–0.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′2.482.65John McGinn 28′
Haiti Scotland ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Ben Gannon-Doak · 3′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetLawrence Shankland · 4′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedLouicius Deedson · 5′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetScott McTominay · 7′ · xG 0.30 · Shot Off TargetJean-Ricner Bellegarde · 11′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetWilson Isidor · 13′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Blocked? · 17′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Hit WoodworkChé Adams · 28′ · xG 0.83 · Shot On TargetJohn McGinn · 28′ · xG 0.24 · GoalLawrence Shankland · 32′ · xG 0.22 · Shot Off TargetRicardo Adé · 34′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Off TargetRuben Providence · 34′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetFrantzdy Pierrot · 34′ · xG 0.63 · Shot BlockedWilson Isidor · 36′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetJean-Ricner Bellegarde · 42′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetBen Gannon-Doak · 55′ · xG 0.20 · Shot BlockedChé Adams · 60′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedJohn McGinn · 73′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetRuben Providence · 73′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetJean-Ricner Bellegarde · 78′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedRuben Providence · 78′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedJosué Casimir · 79′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetFrantzdy Pierrot · 85′ · xG 0.27 · Shot Off TargetFrantzdy Pierrot · 90'+4′ · xG 0.25 · Shot On TargetMartin Expérience · 90'+7′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off Target
Haiti (attacking →) Scotland (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Haiti  ·  match stats  ·  Scotland
53.7 Possession 46.3
15 Shots 9
2 On Target 2
4 Corners 3
23 Fouls 21
3 Offsides 1
1 Saves 2
1 Yellows 3
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Haiti 18%draw 22%Scotland 60%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Haiti 1600, Scotland 1760. The model priced this Haiti 18% / draw 22% / Scotland 60%, most likely score 0–1. The model called it. The result moves 14 Elo points from Haiti to Scotland — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
28' GOALGoal! Haiti 0, Scotland 1. John McGinn (Scotland) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal.
39' YELLOWJean-Ricner Bellegarde (Haiti) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
46' YELLOWAaron Hickey (Scotland) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
61' SUBSubstitution, Haiti. Josué Casimir replaces Louicius Deedson.
75' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Ryan Christie replaces Ben Gannon-Doak.
75' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Lyndon Dykes replaces Ché Adams.
75' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Nathan Patterson replaces Aaron Hickey.
76' SUBSubstitution, Haiti. Lenny Joseph replaces Wilson Isidor.
83' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Findlay Curtis replaces John McGinn.
83' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Kenny McLean replaces Lawrence Shankland.
85' SUBSubstitution, Haiti. Yassin Fortuné replaces Ruben Providence.
90'+1' YELLOWFindlay Curtis (Scotland) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+5' YELLOWKenny McLean (Scotland) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
Lineups
Haiti
4-4-2
  • 1Johny Placide G
  • 5Hannes Delcroix CD-L
  • 4Ricardo Adé CD-R
  • 8Martin Expérience LB
  • 2Carlens Arcus RB
  • 10Jean-Ricner Bellegarde CM-L
  • 17Danley Jean Jacques CM-R
  • 15Ruben Providence LM
  • 11Louicius Deedson RM
  • 18Wilson Isidor CF-L
  • 20Frantzdy Pierrot CF-R
Subs: Josué Casimir, Lenny Joseph, Yassin Fortuné
Scotland
4-4-2
  • 1Angus Gunn G
  • 13Jack Hendry CD-L
  • 5Grant Hanley CD-R
  • 3Andy Robertson LB
  • 2Aaron Hickey RB
  • 19Lewis Ferguson CM-L
  • 4Scott McTominay CM-R
  • 7John McGinn LM
  • 17Ben Gannon-Doak RM
  • 10Ché Adams CF-L
  • 20Lawrence Shankland CF-R
Subs: Ryan Christie, Lyndon Dykes, Nathan Patterson, Findlay Curtis, Kenny McLean
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).