World Cup 2026

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Matchday 13 · Group L · 2026-06-23
Panama
xG 1.33
HT 0–00 – 1
Croatia
xG 1.46
Croatia Ante Budimir 54′
BMO Field · 43,036 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Croatia (65% pre-match) beat Panama 1–0.

Expected goals race
0.511.50′15′30′45′60′75′90′1.331.45Ante Budimir 54′
Panama Croatia ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Luka Modric · 2′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetAmir Murillo · 4′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedMartin Baturina · 45'+1′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetAnte Budimir · 54′ · xG 0.71 · Goal - VolleyMarco Pasalic · 57′ · xG 0.23 · Shot On TargetMarco Pasalic · 57′ · xG 0.27 · Shot Off TargetJosé Fajardo · 60′ · xG 0.32 · Shot Off TargetAmir Murillo · 68′ · xG 0.11 · Shot On TargetCarlos Harvey · 68′ · xG 0.40 · Shot Off TargetJosé Luis Rodríguez · 78′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetCarlos Harvey · 79′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetLuka Sucic · 82′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedCecilio Waterman · 84′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedAmir Murillo · 90'+3′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off Target
Panama (attacking →) Croatia (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Panama  ·  match stats  ·  Croatia
42.1 Possession 57.9
8 Shots 6
1 On Target 2
7 Corners 2
19 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2
1 Saves 1
1 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Panama 15%draw 20%Croatia 65%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Panama 1706, Croatia 1904. The model priced this Panama 15% / draw 20% / Croatia 65%, most likely score 0–2. The model called it. The result moves 12 Elo points from Panama to Croatia — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
45' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Ante Budimir replaces Petar Musa.
45' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Andrej Kramaric replaces Josko Gvardiol.
54' GOALGoal! Panama 0, Croatia 1. Ante Budimir (Croatia) left footed shot from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Josip Stanisic with a cross.
61' YELLOWYoel Bárcenas (Panama) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
72' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Luka Sucic replaces Marco Pasalic.
72' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Petar Sucic replaces Mateo Kovacic.
77' SUBSubstitution, Panama. Cecilio Waterman replaces Jiovany Ramos.
81' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Mario Pasalic replaces Luka Modric.
83' SUBSubstitution, Panama. Azarías Londoño replaces José Fajardo.
90' SUBSubstitution, Panama. Éric Davis replaces César Blackman.
90' SUBSubstitution, Panama. Tomás Rodríguez replaces Yoel Bárcenas.
90'+2' YELLOWPetar Sucic (Croatia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
Lineups
Panama
5-4-1
  • 22Orlando Mosquera G
  • 3José Córdoba CD
  • 16Andrés Andrade CD-L
  • 13Jiovany Ramos CD-R
  • 2César Blackman LB
  • 23Amir Murillo RB
  • 11Édgar Yoel Bárcenas CM-L
  • 14Carlos Harvey CM-R
  • 7José Luis Rodríguez LM
  • 6Cristian Martínez RM
  • 17José Fajardo F
Subs: Cecilio Waterman, Azarias Londoño, Éric Davis, Tomás Rodríguez
Croatia
4-2-3-1
  • 1Dominik Livakovic G
  • 3Marin Pongracic CD-L
  • 6Josip Sutalo CD-R
  • 4Josko Gvardiol LB
  • 2Josip Stanisic RB
  • 16Martin Baturina AM
  • 8Mateo Kovacic LM
  • 10Luka Modric RM
  • 26Petar Musa F
  • 14Ivan Perisic AM-L
  • 24Marco Pasalic AM-R
Subs: Ante Budimir, Andrej Kramaric, Luka Sucic, Petar Sucic, Mario Pasalic
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).