A genuine shock — the model gave Norway just 18% before kick-off, and they beat Brazil anyway. The xG race tells a different story though: Brazil created more (3.12 vs 2.02) and will feel hard done by. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.
Expected goals race
BrazilNorway● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Shot map
Brazil (attacking →)Norway (attacking ←)size = xG · star = goal
Brazil · match stats · Norway
33.6Possession66.4
14Shots9
4On Target5
5Corners5
7Fouls6
1Offsides1
3Saves4
1Yellows0
0Reds0
What the model expected
Pre-match Elo: Brazil 2052, Norway 1892. The model priced this Brazil 60% / draw 22% / Norway 18%, most likely score 1–0. Reality had other plans. The result moves 36 Elo points from Brazil to Norway — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
14'PEN SAVEDPenalty saved. Bruno Guimarães (Brazil) right footed shot saved in the bottom right corner by Ørjan Nyland (Norway).
45'SUBSubstitution, Norway. Oscar Bobb replaces Alexander Sørloth.
45'SUBSubstitution, Norway. Andreas Schjelderup replaces Antonio Nusa.
79'SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Éderson Silva replaces Bruno Guimarães.
79'GOALGoal! Brazil 0, Norway 1. Erling Haaland (Norway) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Andreas Schjelderup with a cross.
90'GOALGoal! Brazil 0, Norway 2. Erling Haaland (Norway) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Andreas Schjelderup.
90'+5'SUBSubstitution, Norway. Leo Østigård replaces David Møller Wolfe because of an injury.
90'+6'YELLOWNeymar (Brazil) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+10'PEN GOALGoal! Brazil 1, Norway 2. Neymar (Brazil) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom right corner.
Lineups
Brazil
4-4-2
1Alisson Becker G
3Gabriel Magalhães CD-L
4Marquinhos CD-R
16Douglas Santos LB
13Danilo RB
5Casemiro CM-L
8Bruno Guimarães CM-R
22Gabriel Martinelli LM
26Rayan RM
7Vinícius Júnior CF-L
9Matheus Cunha CF-R
Subs: Endrick, Neymar, Danilo Santos, Éderson
Norway
4-3-3
1Ørjan Nyland G
17Torbjørn Heggem CD-L
3Kristoffer Ajer CD-R
5David Møller Wolfe LB
26Julian Ryerson RB
8Sander Berge CM
6Patrick Berg LM
10Martin Ødegaard RM
9Erling Haaland F
20Antonio Nusa LF
7Alexander Sørloth RF
Subs: Oscar Bobb, Andreas Schjelderup, Fredrik Aursnes, Leo Østigard