World Cup 2026

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Round of 16 · Knockout · 2026-07-06
USA
xG 0.00
HT 1–21 – 4
Belgium
xG 5.74
USA Malik Tillman 31′  ·  Belgium Charles De Ketelaere 9′, Charles De Ketelaere 33′, Hans Vanaken 57′, Romelu Lukaku 90+3′
Lumen Field · 66,925 attendance
The story

A mild upset: Belgium (41% pre-match) got past USA. The xG race (5.74 vs 0.00) says it was as one-sided as the scoreline suggests. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
1234560′15′30′45′60′75′90′0.005.74Charles De Ketelaere 9′Malik Tillman 31′Charles De Ketelaere 33′Hans Vanaken 57′Romelu Lukaku 90′
USA Belgium ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Leandro Trossard · 1′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedYouri Tielemans · 1′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedTimothy Castagne · 1′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetCharles De Ketelaere · 2′ · xG 0.22 · Shot On TargetYouri Tielemans · 8′ · xG 0.44 · Shot Off TargetCharles De Ketelaere · 9′ · xG 0.95 · GoalLeandro Trossard · 14′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetMalik Tillman · 31′ · xG 0.09 · Goal - Free-kickCharles De Ketelaere · 33′ · xG 0.58 · Goal - HeaderNicolas Raskin · 39′ · xG 0.30 · Shot On TargetDodi Lukébakio · 43′ · xG 0.29 · Shot Off TargetAlex Freeman · 45′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Off TargetFolarin Balogun · 45′ · xG 0.70 · Shot Off TargetDodi Lukébakio · 45'+4′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetHans Vanaken · 57′ · xG 0.05 · GoalLeandro Trossard · 62′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedAlex Freeman · 66′ · xG 0.19 · Shot Off TargetSebastian Berhalter · 79′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetFolarin Balogun · 82′ · xG 0.17 · Shot On TargetFolarin Balogun · 83′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetLeandro Trossard · 86′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedRomelu Lukaku · 90'+3′ · xG 0.18 · Goal
USA (attacking →) Belgium (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
USA  ·  match stats  ·  Belgium
56.2 Possession 43.8
7 Shots 15
2 On Target 7
3 Corners 5
11 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1
3 Saves 1
2 Yellows 0
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
USA 33%draw 26%Belgium 41%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: USA 1884, Belgium 1963. The model priced this USA 33% / draw 26% / Belgium 41%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 40 Elo points from USA to Belgium — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
9' GOALGoal! USA 0, Belgium 1. Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Nicolas Raskin.
21' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Hans Vanaken replaces Amadou Onana because of an injury.
31' GOALGoal! USA 1, Belgium 1. Malik Tillman (USA) from a free kick with a right footed shot to the high centre of the goal.
33' GOALGoal! USA 1, Belgium 2. Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium) header from very close range to the top right corner. Assisted by Leandro Trossard with a cross.
35' YELLOWWeston McKennie (USA) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
45' SUBSubstitution, USA. Giovanni Reyna replaces Sergiño Dest.
57' GOALGoal! USA 1, Belgium 3. Hans Vanaken (Belgium) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Charles De Ketelaere.
59' SUBSubstitution, USA. Sebastian Berhalter replaces Christian Pulisic because of an injury.
67' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Jérémy Doku replaces Dodi Lukébakio.
67' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Romelu Lukaku replaces Charles De Ketelaere.
69' YELLOWMalik Tillman (USA) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
72' SUBSubstitution, USA. Ricardo Pepi replaces Tyler Adams.
89' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Alexis Saelemaekers replaces Leandro Trossard.
89' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Axel Witsel replaces Nicolas Raskin.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, USA. Max Arfsten replaces Antonee Robinson.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, USA. Haji Wright replaces Folarin Balogun.
90'+3' GOALGoal! USA 1, Belgium 4. Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Hans Vanaken.
Lineups
United States
4-3-3
  • 24Matt Freese G
  • 13Tim Ream CD-L
  • 3Chris Richards CD-R
  • 5Antonee Robinson LB
  • 16Alex Freeman RB
  • 4Tyler Adams CM
  • 17Malik Tillman LM
  • 8Weston McKennie RM
  • 20Folarin Balogun F
  • 10Christian Pulisic LF
  • 2Sergiño Dest RF
Subs: Giovanni Reyna, Sebastian Berhalter, Ricardo Pepi, Max Arfsten, Haji Wright
Belgium
4-2-3-1
  • 1Thibaut Courtois G
  • 4Brandon Mechele CD-L
  • 25Nathan Ngoy CD-R
  • 5Maxim De Cuyper LB
  • 21Timothy Castagne RB
  • 8Youri Tielemans AM
  • 23Nicolas Raskin LM
  • 24Amadou Onana RM
  • 17Charles De Ketelaere F
  • 10Leandro Trossard AM-L
  • 14Dodi Lukébakio AM-R
Subs: Hans Vanaken, Jérémy Doku, Romelu Lukaku, Alexis Saelemaekers, Axel Witsel
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).