World Cup 2026

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Matchday 16 · Group H · 2026-06-26
Cape Verde
xG 2.73
HT 0–00 – 0
Saudi Arabia
xG 1.14
NRG Stadium · 68,278 attendance
The story

A 0–0 draw — the model had that at 26%.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′2.731.14
Cape Verde Saudi Arabia ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Salem Al Dawsari · 18′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedWilly Semedo · 22′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetJamiro Monteiro · 34′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedJoão Paulo · 39′ · xG 0.29 · Shot Off TargetWilly Semedo · 42′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetMohamed Kanno · 45'+2′ · xG 0.26 · Shot On TargetSaud Abdulhamid · 45'+4′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedAbdulelah Al Amri · 47′ · xG 0.18 · Shot Off TargetJamiro Monteiro · 48′ · xG 0.23 · Shot On TargetKevin Pina · 50′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetRyan Mendes · 53′ · xG 0.26 · Shot BlockedDeroy Duarte · 57′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetMohammed Abu Al Shamat · 67′ · xG 0.13 · Shot On TargetLaros Duarte · 74′ · xG 0.38 · Shot On TargetPico Lopes · 75′ · xG 0.38 · Shot Off TargetJoão Paulo · 77′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedGarry Rodrigues · 79′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedNasser Al Dawsari · 83′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedKevin Pina · 84′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetNuno da Costa · 85′ · xG 0.19 · Shot Off TargetWagner Pina · 86′ · xG 0.21 · Shot BlockedAbdullah Al Hamddan · 90'+2′ · xG 0.27 · Shot On Target
Cape Verde (attacking →) Saudi Arabia (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Cape Verde  ·  match stats  ·  Saudi Arabia
51.2 Possession 48.8
15 Shots 7
2 On Target 3
4 Corners 2
10 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 0
3 Saves 2
1 Yellows 3
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Cape Verde 35%draw 26%Saudi Arabia 40%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Cape Verde 1685, Saudi Arabia 1703. The model priced this Cape Verde 35% / draw 26% / Saudi Arabia 40%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 1 Elo points from Saudi Arabia to Cape Verde — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
4' YELLOWSaud Abdulhamid (Saudi Arabia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
8' YELLOWWagner Pina (Cabo Verde) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
33' SUBSubstitution, Saudi Arabia. Ali Lajami replaces Hassan Al Tambakti because of an injury.
45' SUBSubstitution, Saudi Arabia. Musab Al Juwayr replaces Abdullah Al Khaibari.
61' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Nuno da Costa replaces Dailon Livramento.
61' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Hélio Varela replaces Willy Semedo.
66' SUBSubstitution, Saudi Arabia. Mohammed Abu Al Shamat replaces Salem Al Dawsari.
66' SUBSubstitution, Saudi Arabia. Abdullah Al Hamddan replaces Sultan Mandash.
67' YELLOWNasser Al Dawsari (Saudi Arabia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
71' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Laros Duarte replaces Jamiro Monteiro.
71' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Garry Rodrigues replaces Ryan Mendes.
82' SUBSubstitution, Saudi Arabia. Moteb Al Harbi replaces Nawaf Bu Washl.
90'+3' YELLOWFeras Al Brikan (Saudi Arabia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+4' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Steven Moreira replaces Wagner Pina.
Lineups
Cape Verde
4-1-4-1
  • 1Vozinha G
  • 3Diney Borges CD-L
  • 4Pico Lopes CD-R
  • 6Kevin Pina DM
  • 8João Paulo LB
  • 24Wagner Pina RB
  • 10Jamiro Monteiro CM-L
  • 14Deroy Duarte CM-R
  • 17Willy Semedo LM
  • 20Ryan Mendes RM
  • 19Dailon Livramento F
Subs: Nuno da Costa, Hélio Varela, Laros Duarte, Garry Rodrigues, Steven Moreira
Saudi Arabia
4-4-2
  • 21Mohammed Al-Owais G
  • 5Hassan Al-Tambakti CD-L
  • 4Abdulelah Al-Amri CD-R
  • 13Nawaf Boushal LB
  • 12Saud Abdulhamid RB
  • 6Nasser Al-Dawsari CM-L
  • 15Abdullah Al-Khaibari CM-R
  • 10Salem Al-Dawsari LM
  • 20Sultan Mandash RM
  • 9Feras Al-Brikan CF-L
  • 23Mohamed Kanno CF-R
Subs: Ali Lajami, Musab Al-Juwayr, Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat, Abdullah Al-Hamdan, Moteb Al-Harbi
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).