World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-07-03
Australia
xG 5.87
PENS 2–4 · AET · HT 0–11 – 1
Egypt
xG 5.49
Australia Mohamed Hany 55′ (o.g.)  ·  Egypt Emam Ashour 13′
AT&T Stadium · 70,244 attendance
The story

A mild upset: Egypt (41% pre-match) got past Australia on penalties. The xG race tells a different story though: Australia created more (5.87 vs 5.49) and will feel hard done by.

Expected goals race
1234560′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′120′5.87120′120′5.49Emam Ashour 13′120′120′120′120′
Australia Egypt ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
? · 5′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Hit WoodworkEmam Ashour · 13′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedEmam Ashour · 13′ · xG 0.31 · Goal - HeaderConnor Metcalfe · 15′ · xG 0.19 · Shot BlockedAiden O'Neill · 15′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetOmar Marmoush · 16′ · xG 0.20 · Shot BlockedAziz Behich · 35′ · xG 0.12 · Shot On TargetCristian Volpato · 45'+2′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetNestory Irankunda · 45'+3′ · xG 0.37 · Shot Off TargetOmar Marmoush · 46′ · xG 0.33 · Shot Off TargetNestory Irankunda · 61′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedEmam Ashour · 73′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetAjdin Hrustic · 77′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedConnor Metcalfe · 81′ · xG 0.19 · Shot BlockedMarwan Attia · 86′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedAjdin Hrustic · 86′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedJackson Irvine · 88′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedKai Trewin · 88′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedRamy Rabia · 90'+3′ · xG 0.31 · Shot On TargetMohamed Salah · 90'+4′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetMarwan Attia · 90'+5′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedHaissem Hassan · 90'+6′ · xG 0.23 · Shot BlockedMohamed Salah · 93′ · xG 0.18 · Shot Off TargetEmam Ashour · 103′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetMohamed Touré · 106′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Off TargetMarwan Attia · 109′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetEmam Ashour · 112′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedAwer Mabil · 118′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedAlessandro Circati · 120'+2′ · xG 0.19 · Shot BlockedMohamed Touré · 120'+2′ · xG 0.46 · Shot Off TargetHarry Souttar · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Missed? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Missed? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored
Australia (attacking →) Egypt (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Australia  ·  match stats  ·  Egypt
41.7 Possession 58.3
16 Shots 14
1 On Target 3
4 Corners 7
12 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 3
3 Saves 1
0 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Australia 33%draw 26%Egypt 41%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Australia 1796, Egypt 1825. The model priced this Australia 33% / draw 26% / Egypt 41%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 23 Elo points from Australia to Egypt — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
13' GOALGoal! Australia 0, Egypt 1. Emam Ashour (Egypt) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Karim Hafez with a cross following a set piece situation.
45' SUBSubstitution, Australia. Kai Trewin replaces Jordan Bos because of an injury.
55' GOALOwn Goal by Mohamed Hany, Egypt. Australia 1, Egypt 1.
67' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Haissem Hassan replaces Mostafa Zico.
67' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Hossam Abdelmaguid replaces Hamdi Fathy.
74' SUBSubstitution, Australia. Ajdin Hrustic replaces Cristian Volpato.
74' SUBSubstitution, Australia. Mohamed Touré replaces Nestory Irankunda.
80' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Trezeguet replaces Karim Hafez because of an injury.
90' SUBSubstitution, Australia. Paul Okon-Engstler replaces Aiden O'Neill.
90' SUBSubstitution, Australia. Awer Mabil replaces Connor Metcalfe.
105' YELLOWHaissem Hassan (Egypt) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
105' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Hamza Abdelkarim replaces Omar Marmoush.
119' SUBSubstitution, Australia. Mathew Ryan replaces Patrick Beach.
120' YELLOWYasser Ibrahim (Egypt) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
120'+1' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Mahmoud Saber replaces Marwan Attia.
Lineups
Australia
3-4-2-1
  • 18Patrick Beach G
  • 19Harry Souttar CD
  • 25Lucas Herrington CD-L
  • 3Alessandro Circati CD-R
  • 13Aiden O'Neill CM-L
  • 22Jackson Irvine CM-R
  • 16Aziz Behich LM
  • 5Jordan Bos RM
  • 17Nestory Irankunda F
  • 8Connor Metcalfe CF-L
  • 20Cristian Volpato CF-R
Subs: Kai Trewin, Ajdin Hrustic, Mohamed Toure, Paul Okon-Engstler, Awer Mabil, Mathew Ryan
Egypt
4-4-2
  • 23Mostafa Shoubir G
  • 5Ramy Rabia CD-L
  • 2Yasser Ibrahim CD-R
  • 15Karim Hafez LB
  • 3Mohamed Hany RB
  • 19Marawan Attia CM-L
  • 14Hamdy Fathy CM-R
  • 22Omar Marmoush LM
  • 8Emam Ashour RM
  • 11Mostafa Zico CF-L
  • 10Mohamed Salah CF-R
Subs: Haissem Hassan, Hossam Abdelmaguid, Trézéguet, Hamza Abdelkarim, Mahmoud Saber
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).