Mexico 2–3 England — World Cup 2026

Round of 16 · Knockout · 2026-07-05

Mexico

xG 3.85

HT 1–22 – 3

England

xG 2.30

Mexico Julián Quiñones 42′, Raúl Jiménez 69′ (pen.) · England Jude Bellingham 36′, Jude Bellingham 38′, Harry Kane 60′ (pen.)

Estadio Banorte · 80,824 attendance

The story

A mild upset: England (47% pre-match) got past Mexico. The xG race tells a different story though: Mexico created more (3.85 vs 2.30) and will feel hard done by. Tempers frayed — 1 red card shown.

Expected goals race

Mexico England ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map

Mexico (attacking →) England (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal

Mexico · match stats · England

66.9 Possession 33.1

20 Shots 6

5 On Target 5

12 Corners 2

14 Fouls 7

1 Offsides 0

2 Saves 3

2 Yellows 4

0 Reds 1

What the model expected

Pre-match Elo: Mexico 1944, England 2064. The model priced this Mexico 28% / draw 25% / England 47%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 20 Elo points from Mexico to England — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline

1' YELLOWDeclan Rice (England) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

36' GOALGoal! Mexico 0, England 1. Jude Bellingham (England) header from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Bukayo Saka with a cross.

38' GOALGoal! Mexico 0, England 2. Jude Bellingham (England) right footed shot from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Harry Kane.

42' GOALGoal! Mexico 1, England 2. Julián Quiñones (Mexico) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal following a set piece situation.

45' SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Edson Álvarez replaces César Montes.

54' REDJarell Quansah (England) is shown the red card.

57' SUBSubstitution, England. John Stones replaces Bukayo Saka.

60' PEN GOALGoal! Mexico 1, England 3. Harry Kane (England) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.

61' SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Santiago Giménez replaces Gilberto Mora.

61' SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Brian Gutiérrez replaces Luis Romo.

68' YELLOWMarc Guéhi (England) is shown the yellow card.

69' PEN GOALGoal! Mexico 2, England 3. Raúl Jiménez (Mexico) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.

71' YELLOWJorge Sánchez (Mexico) is shown the yellow card.

72' YELLOWNico O'Reilly (England) is shown the yellow card.

74' SUBSubstitution, England. Djed Spence replaces Nico O'Reilly.

75' SUBSubstitution, England. Dan Burn replaces Elliot Anderson.

79' SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Álvaro Fidalgo replaces Jorge Sánchez.

81' SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Guillermo Martínez replaces Julián Quiñones.

90' SUBSubstitution, England. Morgan Rogers replaces Harry Kane.

90'+8' YELLOWJohan Vásquez (Mexico) is shown the yellow card.

90'+8' YELLOWJordan Henderson (England) is shown the yellow card.

Lineups

Mexico

4-3-3

1Raúl Rangel G
5Johan Vásquez CD-L
3César Montes CD-R
23Jesús Gallardo LB
2Jorge Sánchez RB
6Érik Lira CM
7Luis Romo LM
19Gilberto Mora RM
9Raúl Jiménez F
16Julián Quiñones LF
25Roberto Alvarado RF

Subs: Edson Álvarez, Santiago Gimenez, Brian Gutiérrez, Álvaro Fidalgo, Guillermo Martínez

England

4-2-3-1

1Jordan Pickford G
6Marc Guéhi CD-L
2Ezri Konsa CD-R
3Nico O'Reilly LB
26Jarell Quansah RB
10Jude Bellingham AM
8Elliot Anderson LM
4Declan Rice RM
9Harry Kane F
18Anthony Gordon AM-L
7Bukayo Saka AM-R

Subs: John Stones, Djed Spence, Dan Burn, Morgan Rogers