The favourite delivered: England (60% pre-match) beat Norway 2–1 after extra time. The xG race tells a different story though: Norway created more (2.27 vs 2.21) and will feel hard done by. The decisive moment came late, in the 93th minute.
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Norway 1928, England 2084. The model priced this Norway 18% / draw 22% / England 60%, most likely score 0–1. The model called it. The result moves 14 Elo points from Norway to England — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).