Australia Nestory Irankunda 27′, Connor Metcalfe 75′
BC Place · 52,497 attendance
The story
A genuine shock — the model gave Australia just 28% before kick-off, and they beat Turkey anyway. The xG race tells a different story though: Turkey created more (4.28 vs 1.76) and will feel hard done by.
Expected goals race
AustraliaTurkey● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Shot map
Australia (attacking →)Turkey (attacking ←)size = xG · star = goal
Australia · match stats · Turkey
28.4Possession71.6
9Shots30
4On Target8
5Corners8
12Fouls4
1Offsides3
8Saves2
0Yellows1
0Reds0
What the model expected
Pre-match Elo: Australia 1780, Turkey 1850. The model priced this Australia 28% / draw 25% / Turkey 47%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 45 Elo points from Turkey to Australia — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
27'GOALGoal! Australia 1, Türkiye 0. Nestory Irankunda (Australia) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Paul Okon-Engstler.
45'SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Kenan Yildiz replaces Baris Alper Yilmaz.