World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-06-29
Brazil
xG 3.93
HT 0–12 – 1
Japan
xG 0.67
Brazil Casemiro 56′, Gabriel Martinelli 90+5′  ·  Japan Kaishu Sano 29′
NRG Stadium · 68,777 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Brazil (56% pre-match) beat Japan 2–1. The xG race (3.93 vs 0.67) says it was as one-sided as the scoreline suggests. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
12340′15′30′45′60′75′90′3.93Casemiro 56′Gabriel Martinelli 90′0.67Kaishu Sano 29′
Brazil Japan ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Bruno Guimarães · 2′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedBruno Guimarães · 10′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedMatheus Cunha · 14′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetBruno Guimarães · 14′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetDaichi Kamada · 16′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedAyase Ueda · 27′ · xG 0.30 · Shot Off TargetKaishu Sano · 29′ · xG 0.10 · GoalVinícius Júnior · 34′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetLucas Paquetá · 35′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedMatheus Cunha · 38′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetJunya Ito · 45′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedLucas Paquetá · 45'+1′ · xG 0.19 · Shot BlockedBruno Guimarães · 52′ · xG 0.24 · Shot On TargetEndrick · 53′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetCasemiro · 54′ · xG 0.53 · Shot BlockedCasemiro · 56′ · xG 0.38 · Goal - HeaderVinícius Júnior · 58′ · xG 0.30 · Shot On TargetMatheus Cunha · 58′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetAyase Ueda · 64′ · xG 0.08 · Shot On TargetRayan · 74′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedGabriel Martinelli · 77′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetRayan · 85′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedVinícius Júnior · 89′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedFabinho · 90'+4′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Off TargetGabriel Martinelli · 90'+5′ · xG 0.34 · Goal
Brazil (attacking →) Japan (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Brazil  ·  match stats  ·  Japan
68.6 Possession 31.4
19 Shots 5
7 On Target 2
6 Corners 2
4 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 4
2 Yellows 3
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Brazil 56%draw 23%Japan 21%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Brazil 2036, Japan 1906. The model priced this Brazil 56% / draw 23% / Japan 21%, most likely score 1–1. The model called it. The result moves 16 Elo points from Japan to Brazil — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
12' YELLOWKaishu Sano (Japan) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
14' YELLOWCasemiro (Brazil) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
29' GOALGoal! Brazil 0, Japan 1. Kaishu Sano (Japan) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner following a fast break.
45' YELLOWDaichi Kamada (Japan) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
45' SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Endrick replaces Lucas Paquetá because of an injury.
48' YELLOWDanilo (Brazil) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
56' GOALGoal! Brazil 1, Japan 1. Casemiro (Brazil) header from the right side of the six yard box to the top right corner. Assisted by Gabriel Magalhães with a cross.
66' SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Gabriel Martinelli replaces Matheus Cunha.
66' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Junnosuke Suzuki replaces Keito Nakamura.
66' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Yukinari Sugawara replaces Ritsu Doan.
78' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Shuto Machino replaces Junya Ito.
78' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Ao Tanaka replaces Daichi Kamada.
84' YELLOWJunnosuke Suzuki (Japan) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Fabinho replaces Casemiro because of an injury.
90'+5' GOALGoal! Brazil 2, Japan 1. Gabriel Martinelli (Brazil) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Bruno Guimarães.
90'+7' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Koki Ogawa replaces Daizen Maeda.
90'+8' SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Danilo Santos replaces Bruno Guimarães.
Lineups
Brazil
4-3-3
  • 1Alisson Becker G
  • 3Gabriel Magalhães CD-L
  • 4Marquinhos CD-R
  • 16Douglas Santos LB
  • 13Danilo RB
  • 5Casemiro CM
  • 20Lucas Paquetá LM
  • 8Bruno Guimarães RM
  • 9Matheus Cunha F
  • 7Vinícius Júnior LF
  • 26Rayan RF
Subs: Endrick, Gabriel Martinelli, Fabinho, Danilo Santos
Japan
3-4-2-1
  • 1Zion Suzuki G
  • 3Shogo Taniguchi CD
  • 21Hiroki Ito CD-L
  • 22Takehiro Tomiyasu CD-R
  • 15Daichi Kamada CM-L
  • 24Kaishu Sano CM-R
  • 13Keito Nakamura LM
  • 10Ritsu Doan RM
  • 18Ayase Ueda F
  • 11Daizen Maeda CF-L
  • 14Junya Ito CF-R
Subs: Junnosuke Suzuki, Yukinari Sugawara, Shuto Machino, Ao Tanaka, Koki Ogawa
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).