World Cup 2026

← All matches
Quarter-final · Knockout · 2026-07-10
Spain
xG 3.66
HT 1–12 – 1
Belgium
xG 0.85
Spain Fabián Ruiz 30′, Mikel Merino 88′  ·  Belgium Charles De Ketelaere 41′
SoFi Stadium · 70,492 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Spain (56% pre-match) beat Belgium 2–1. The decisive moment came late, in the 88th minute.

Expected goals race
12340′15′30′45′60′75′90′3.66Fabián Ruiz 30′Mikel Merino 88′0.85Charles De Ketelaere 41′
Spain Belgium ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Rodri · 10′ · xG 0.33 · Shot BlockedÁlex Baena · 13′ · xG 0.23 · Shot BlockedCharles De Ketelaere · 15′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedLamine Yamal · 21′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetDani Olmo · 30′ · xG 0.25 · Shot On TargetFabián Ruiz · 30′ · xG 0.57 · GoalLamine Yamal · 35′ · xG 0.10 · Shot On TargetLamine Yamal · 40′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetCharles De Ketelaere · 41′ · xG 0.35 · Goal - HeaderPedro Porro · 45′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetFabián Ruiz · 45'+2′ · xG 0.19 · Shot BlockedLamine Yamal · 52′ · xG 0.19 · Shot BlockedDani Olmo · 53′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetMaxim De Cuyper · 55′ · xG 0.16 · Shot Off TargetLamine Yamal · 61′ · xG 0.08 · Shot On TargetKevin De Bruyne · 62′ · xG 0.19 · Shot On TargetMikel Oyarzabal · 62′ · xG 0.27 · Shot On TargetLamine Yamal · 74′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedKevin De Bruyne · 84′ · xG 0.02 · Shot BlockedPau Cubarsí · 88′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetMikel Merino · 88′ · xG 0.77 · GoalMarc Cucurella · 90'+7′ · xG 0.08 · Shot On Target
Spain (attacking →) Belgium (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Spain  ·  match stats  ·  Belgium
67.9 Possession 32.1
17 Shots 5
8 On Target 2
5 Corners 1
13 Fouls 18
3 Offsides 1
1 Saves 6
2 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Spain 56%draw 23%Belgium 21%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Spain 2134, Belgium 2003. The model priced this Spain 56% / draw 23% / Belgium 21%, most likely score 1–1. The model called it. The result moves 16 Elo points from Belgium to Spain — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
30' GOALGoal! Spain 1, Belgium 0. Fabián Ruiz (Spain) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal.
41' GOALGoal! Spain 1, Belgium 1. Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium) header from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Timothy Castagne with a cross.
43' YELLOWPau Cubarsí (Spain) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
55' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Ferran Torres replaces Álex Baena.
55' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Pedri replaces Fabián Ruiz.
60' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Axel Witsel replaces Leandro Trossard.
60' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Romelu Lukaku replaces Hans Vanaken.
61' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Joaquin Seys replaces Maxim De Cuyper.
71' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Senne Lammens replaces Thibaut Courtois because of an injury.
79' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Nico Williams replaces Mikel Oyarzabal.
85' YELLOWKevin De Bruyne (Belgium) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
86' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Alexis Saelemaekers replaces Kevin De Bruyne.
86' SUBSubstitution, Spain. Mikel Merino replaces Dani Olmo.
88' GOALGoal! Spain 2, Belgium 1. Mikel Merino (Spain) left footed shot from very close range to the top left corner.
90'+3' YELLOWAymeric Laporte (Spain) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+5' YELLOWAxel Witsel (Belgium) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
Lineups
Spain
4-2-3-1
  • 23Unai Simón G
  • 14Aymeric Laporte CD-L
  • 22Pau Cubarsí CD-R
  • 24Marc Cucurella LB
  • 12Pedro Porro RB
  • 10Dani Olmo AM
  • 8Fabián Ruiz LM
  • 16Rodri RM
  • 21Mikel Oyarzabal F
  • 15Álex Baena AM-L
  • 19Lamine Yamal AM-R
Subs: Ferran Torres, Pedri, Nico Williams, Mikel Merino
Belgium
4-2-3-1
  • 1Thibaut Courtois G
  • 4Brandon Mechele CD-L
  • 25Nathan Ngoy CD-R
  • 5Maxim De Cuyper LB
  • 21Timothy Castagne RB
  • 7Kevin De Bruyne AM
  • 23Nicolas Raskin LM
  • 20Hans Vanaken RM
  • 17Charles De Ketelaere F
  • 11Jérémy Doku AM-L
  • 10Leandro Trossard AM-R
Subs: Axel Witsel, Romelu Lukaku, Joaquin Seys, Senne Lammens, Alexis Saelemaekers
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).