World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-06-30
France
xG 4.57
HT 1–03 – 0
Sweden
xG 1.63
France Kylian Mbappé 45′, Kylian Mbappé 74′, Bradley Barcola 53′
MetLife Stadium · 80,663 attendance
The story

France made a statement — a 3–0 dismantling of Sweden.

Expected goals race
123450′15′30′45′60′75′90′4.57Kylian Mbappé 45′Bradley Barcola 53′Kylian Mbappé 74′1.63
France Sweden ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Alexander Isak · 3′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetLucas Digne · 15′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetKylian Mbappé · 17′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetBradley Barcola · 19′ · xG 0.16 · Shot Off TargetAlexander Isak · 27′ · xG 0.29 · Shot Off TargetOusmane Dembélé · 28′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedAdrien Rabiot · 30′ · xG 0.17 · Shot On Target? · 32′ · xG 0.38 · Shot Hit WoodworkAdrien Rabiot · 33′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off Target? · 35′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Hit WoodworkOusmane Dembélé · 36′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetDayot Upamecano · 39′ · xG 0.31 · Shot Off TargetKylian Mbappé · 40′ · xG 0.08 · Shot On TargetMichael Olise · 42′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetJules Koundé · 44′ · xG 0.17 · Shot BlockedMichael Olise · 45′ · xG 0.08 · Shot On TargetKylian Mbappé · 45′ · xG 0.26 · GoalElliot Stroud · 45'+2′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off TargetAurélien Tchouaméni · 50′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetBradley Barcola · 53′ · xG 0.25 · GoalLucas Bergvall · 57′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off TargetMichael Olise · 61′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetMichael Olise · 65′ · xG 0.20 · Shot BlockedDayot Upamecano · 66′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedMichael Olise · 71′ · xG 0.32 · Shot On TargetKylian Mbappé · 74′ · xG 0.22 · GoalDésiré Doué · 81′ · xG 0.12 · Shot On TargetBradley Barcola · 82′ · xG 0.30 · Shot On TargetMattias Svanberg · 86′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetViktor Gyökeres · 89′ · xG 0.25 · Shot On TargetJean-Philippe Mateta · 90'+2′ · xG 0.37 · Shot Off TargetGustaf Nilsson · 90'+4′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedMattias Svanberg · 90'+4′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On Target
France (attacking →) Sweden (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
France  ·  match stats  ·  Sweden
61 Possession 39
25 Shots 8
12 On Target 3
9 Corners 1
14 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 1
3 Saves 9
0 Yellows 0
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
France 75%draw 15%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: France 2097, Sweden 1820. The model priced this France 75% / draw 15% / Sweden 9%, most likely score 2–0. The model called it. The result moves 15 Elo points from Sweden to France — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
45' GOALGoal! France 1, Sweden 0. Kylian Mbappé (France) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Ousmane Dembélé following a corner.
53' GOALGoal! France 2, Sweden 0. Bradley Barcola (France) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Michael Olise with a through ball following a fast break.
66' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Taha Ali replaces Elliot Stroud.
66' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Besfort Zeneli replaces Lucas Bergvall.
74' GOALGoal! France 3, Sweden 0. Kylian Mbappé (France) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Michael Olise with a through ball.
75' SUBSubstitution, France. Désiré Doué replaces Ousmane Dembélé.
75' SUBSubstitution, France. Malo Gusto replaces Jules Koundé.
78' SUBSubstitution, France. Théo Hernández replaces Lucas Digne.
82' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Mattias Svanberg replaces Daniel Svensson.
82' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Benjamin Nygren replaces Yasin Ayari.
85' SUBSubstitution, France. Jean-Philippe Mateta replaces Kylian Mbappé.
85' SUBSubstitution, France. Rayan Cherki replaces Michael Olise.
89' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Gustaf Nilsson replaces Alexander Isak.
Lineups
France
4-2-3-1
  • 16Mike Maignan G
  • 17William Saliba CD-L
  • 4Dayot Upamecano CD-R
  • 3Lucas Digne LB
  • 5Jules Koundé RB
  • 11Michael Olise AM
  • 14Adrien Rabiot LM
  • 8Aurélien Tchouaméni RM
  • 10Kylian Mbappé F
  • 12Bradley Barcola AM-L
  • 7Ousmane Dembélé AM-R
Subs: Désiré Doué, Malo Gusto, Theo Hernández, Jean-Philippe Mateta, Rayan Cherki
Sweden
4-4-2
  • 1Jacob Widell Zetterström G
  • 3Victor Lindelöf CD-L
  • 2Gustaf Lagerbielke CD-R
  • 5Gabriel Gudmundsson LB
  • 8Daniel Svensson RB
  • 18Yasin Ayari CM-L
  • 7Lucas Bergvall CM-R
  • 24Elliot Stroud LM
  • 11Anthony Elanga RM
  • 9Alexander Isak CF-L
  • 17Viktor Gyökeres CF-R
Subs: Taha Ali, Besfort Zeneli, Mattias Svanberg, Benjamin Nygren, Gustaf Nilsson
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).