World Cup 2026

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Match for third place · Knockout · 2026-07-18
France
xG 3.91
HT 0–44 – 6
England
xG 4.60
France Kylian Mbappé 48′, Bradley Barcola 54′, Kylian Mbappé 66′, Ousmane Dembélé 90+6′  ·  England Declan Rice 3′, Ezri Konsa 18′, Bukayo Saka 37′, Bukayo Saka 45+1′, Bukayo Saka 87′ (pen.), Jude Bellingham 90+8′
Hard Rock Stadium · 64,478 attendance
The story

A mild upset: England (33% pre-match) got past France. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
123450′15′30′45′60′75′90′3.91Kylian Mbappé 48′Bradley Barcola 54′Kylian Mbappé 66′Ousmane Dembélé 90′4.61Declan Rice 3′Ezri Konsa 18′Bukayo Saka 37′Bukayo Saka 45′Bukayo Saka 87′Jude Bellingham 90′
France England ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Declan Rice · 3′ · xG 0.09 · GoalKylian Mbappé · 5′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedMarcus Rashford · 7′ · xG 0.21 · Shot BlockedEberechi Eze · 8′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedRayan Cherki · 11′ · xG 0.15 · Shot On TargetWarren Zaïre-Emery · 11′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedBukayo Saka · 18′ · xG 0.20 · Shot BlockedEzri Konsa · 18′ · xG 0.34 · Goal - HeaderKylian Mbappé · 22′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetMarcus Rashford · 33′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetKylian Mbappé · 35′ · xG 0.33 · Shot On TargetMarcus Rashford · 37′ · xG 0.15 · Shot On TargetBukayo Saka · 37′ · xG 0.19 · Shot BlockedBukayo Saka · 37′ · xG 0.20 · GoalBukayo Saka · 45'+1′ · xG 0.17 · GoalIvan Toney · 45'+4′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedKylian Mbappé · 48′ · xG 0.39 · GoalOllie Watkins · 50′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetAdrien Rabiot · 51′ · xG 0.21 · Shot Off TargetEberechi Eze · 54′ · xG 0.03 · Shot Off TargetBradley Barcola · 54′ · xG 0.38 · GoalIvan Toney · 59′ · xG 0.37 · Shot On TargetMichael Olise · 61′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetEberechi Eze · 64′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedOusmane Dembélé · 64′ · xG 0.26 · Shot On TargetDayot Upamecano · 65′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetKylian Mbappé · 66′ · xG 0.23 · GoalKylian Mbappé · 68′ · xG 0.30 · Shot Off TargetMichael Olise · 75′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetKylian Mbappé · 79′ · xG 0.19 · Shot BlockedJude Bellingham · 80′ · xG 0.45 · Shot On TargetMorgan Rogers · 80′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedMichael Olise · 81′ · xG 0.41 · Shot Off TargetKylian Mbappé · 84′ · xG 0.08 · Shot On TargetBukayo Saka · 87′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - ScoredBradley Barcola · 90'+1′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedOusmane Dembélé · 90'+6′ · xG 0.22 · GoalJude Bellingham · 90'+8′ · xG 0.57 · Goal
France (attacking →) England (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
France  ·  match stats  ·  England
45.9 Possession 54.1
19 Shots 19
9 On Target 11
3 Corners 4
14 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 3
4 Saves 5
0 Yellows 0
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
France 41%draw 26%England 33%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: France 2108, England 2079. The model priced this France 41% / draw 26% / England 33%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 41 Elo points from France to England — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
3' GOALGoal! France 0, England 1. Declan Rice (England) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner.
18' GOALGoal! France 0, England 2. Ezri Konsa (England) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Declan Rice with a cross following a corner.
37' GOALGoal! France 0, England 3. Bukayo Saka (England) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Marcus Rashford following a fast break.
45'+1' GOALGoal! France 0, England 4. Bukayo Saka (England) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Eberechi Eze with a through ball.
45' SUBSubstitution, France. Ousmane Dembélé replaces Rayan Cherki.
45' SUBSubstitution, France. Bradley Barcola replaces Désiré Doué.
45' SUBSubstitution, France. Lucas Digne replaces Théo Hernández.
45' SUBSubstitution, France. Dayot Upamecano replaces Ibrahima Konaté.
45' SUBSubstitution, England. Ollie Watkins replaces Marcus Rashford.
48' GOALGoal! France 1, England 4. Kylian Mbappé (France) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Michael Olise with a through ball following a fast break.
54' GOALGoal! France 2, England 4. Bradley Barcola (France) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Kylian Mbappé with a through ball.
66' GOALGoal! France 3, England 4. Kylian Mbappé (France) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Michael Olise.
79' SUBSubstitution, England. Elliot Anderson replaces Ivan Toney.
79' SUBSubstitution, England. Jude Bellingham replaces Eberechi Eze.
83' SUBSubstitution, England. Reece James replaces Jarell Quansah because of an injury.
87' PEN GOALGoal! France 3, England 5. Bukayo Saka (England) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the bottom right corner.
90'+1' SUBSubstitution, France. Jules Koundé replaces Malo Gusto because of an injury.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, England. Trevoh Chalobah replaces Marc Guéhi.
90'+6' GOALGoal! France 4, England 5. Ousmane Dembélé (France) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Dayot Upamecano following a fast break.
90'+8' GOALGoal! France 4, England 6. Jude Bellingham (England) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner following a fast break.
Lineups
France
4-2-3-1
  • 16Mike Maignan G
  • 26Maxence Lacroix CD-L
  • 15Ibrahima Konaté CD-R
  • 19Theo Hernández LB
  • 2Malo Gusto RB
  • 24Rayan Cherki AM
  • 14Adrien Rabiot LM
  • 18Warren Zaïre-Emery RM
  • 10Kylian Mbappé F
  • 20Désiré Doué AM-L
  • 11Michael Olise AM-R
Subs: Ousmane Dembélé, Bradley Barcola, Lucas Digne, Dayot Upamecano, Jules Koundé
England
4-1-4-1
  • 13Dean Henderson G
  • 6Marc Guéhi CD-L
  • 2Ezri Konsa CD-R
  • 4Declan Rice DM
  • 25Djed Spence LB
  • 26Jarell Quansah RB
  • 21Eberechi Eze CM-L
  • 17Morgan Rogers CM-R
  • 11Marcus Rashford LM
  • 7Bukayo Saka RM
  • 22Ivan Toney F
Subs: Ollie Watkins, Elliot Anderson, Jude Bellingham, Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).