World Cup 2026

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Matchday 14 · Group C · 2026-06-24
Scotland
xG 3.40
HT 0–20 – 3
Brazil
xG 4.76
Brazil Vinícius Júnior 7′, Vinícius Júnior 45+3′, Matheus Cunha 60′
Hard Rock Stadium · 64,478 attendance
The story

Brazil made a statement — a 3–0 dismantling of Scotland.

Expected goals race
123450′15′30′45′60′75′90′3.394.76Vinícius Júnior 7′Vinícius Júnior 45′Matheus Cunha 60′
Scotland Brazil ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Casemiro · 7′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedVinícius Júnior · 7′ · xG 0.51 · GoalBruno Guimarães · 11′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedMatheus Cunha · 12′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetVinícius Júnior · 20′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetLewis Ferguson · 33′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedKenny McLean · 36′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedRayan · 38′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetMatheus Cunha · 42′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetMatheus Cunha · 45′ · xG 0.68 · Shot BlockedBen Gannon-Doak · 45'+2′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetVinícius Júnior · 45'+3′ · xG 0.56 · Goal - HeaderBen Gannon-Doak · 45'+6′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedRayan · 45'+6′ · xG 0.23 · Shot On TargetDouglas Santos · 45'+7′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetScott McTominay · 49′ · xG 0.31 · Shot On TargetVinícius Júnior · 51′ · xG 0.24 · Shot On TargetVinícius Júnior · 54′ · xG 0.04 · Shot On TargetMatheus Cunha · 59′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedLucas Paquetá · 59′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetMatheus Cunha · 60′ · xG 0.25 · GoalLewis Ferguson · 64′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetScott McTominay · 64′ · xG 0.34 · Shot On TargetLawrence Shankland · 72′ · xG 0.20 · Shot BlockedScott McTominay · 72′ · xG 0.55 · Shot Off TargetLawrence Shankland · 76′ · xG 0.29 · Shot Off TargetVinícius Júnior · 79′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetVinícius Júnior · 81′ · xG 0.60 · Shot Off TargetRyan Christie · 83′ · xG 0.18 · Shot Off TargetKieran Tierney · 84′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedGabriel Magalhães · 86′ · xG 0.31 · Shot BlockedAnthony Ralston · 89′ · xG 0.21 · Shot On TargetNeymar · 90′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetScott McTominay · 90'+6′ · xG 0.72 · Shot On TargetVinícius Júnior · 90'+6′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Blocked
Scotland (attacking →) Brazil (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Scotland  ·  match stats  ·  Brazil
46 Possession 54
14 Shots 21
5 On Target 9
7 Corners 7
10 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1
5 Saves 5
1 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
draw 16%Brazil 73%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Scotland 1760, Brazil 2020. The model priced this Scotland 10% / draw 16% / Brazil 73%, most likely score 0–2. The model called it. The result moves 16 Elo points from Scotland to Brazil — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
7' GOALGoal! Scotland 0, Brazil 1. Vinícius Júnior (Brazil) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Rayan.
45'+3' GOALGoal! Scotland 0, Brazil 2. Vinícius Júnior (Brazil) header from very close range to the top left corner. Assisted by Bruno Guimarães with a cross.
45' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Kieran Tierney replaces Andy Robertson because of an injury.
60' GOALGoal! Scotland 0, Brazil 3. Matheus Cunha (Brazil) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Bruno Guimarães.
62' YELLOWDanilo (Brazil) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
65' SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Fabinho replaces Casemiro.
66' SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Gabriel Martinelli replaces Lucas Paquetá.
76' SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Neymar replaces Matheus Cunha.
82' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Anthony Ralston replaces Nathan Patterson.
82' SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Endrick replaces Rayan.
82' SUBSubstitution, Brazil. Alex Sandro replaces Douglas Santos.
82' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Ryan Christie replaces Ben Gannon-Doak.
82' YELLOWFabinho (Brazil) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
89' YELLOWRyan Christie (Scotland) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+1' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Findlay Curtis replaces John McGinn.
90'+1' SUBSubstitution, Scotland. Ché Adams replaces Lawrence Shankland.
Lineups
Scotland
4-2-3-1
  • 1Angus Gunn G
  • 26Scott McKenna CD-L
  • 13Jack Hendry CD-R
  • 3Andy Robertson LB
  • 22Nathan Patterson RB
  • 4Scott McTominay AM
  • 23Kenny McLean LM
  • 19Lewis Ferguson RM
  • 20Lawrence Shankland F
  • 7John McGinn AM-L
  • 17Ben Gannon-Doak AM-R
Subs: Kieran Tierney, Anthony Ralston, Ryan Christie, Findlay Curtis, Ché Adams
Brazil
4-3-3
  • 1Alisson Becker G
  • 3Gabriel Magalhães CD-L
  • 4Marquinhos CD-R
  • 16Douglas Santos LB
  • 13Danilo RB
  • 5Casemiro CM
  • 20Lucas Paquetá LM
  • 8Bruno Guimarães RM
  • 9Matheus Cunha F
  • 7Vinícius Júnior LF
  • 26Rayan RF
Subs: Fabinho, Gabriel Martinelli, Neymar, Endrick, Alex Sandro
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).