World Cup 2026

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Matchday 5 · Group H · 2026-06-15
Saudi Arabia
xG 1.85
HT 1–01 – 1
Uruguay
xG 4.95
Saudi Arabia Abdulelah Al-Amri 41′  ·  Uruguay Maxi Araújo 80′
Hard Rock Stadium · 62,764 attendance
The story

A 1–1 draw — the model had that at 20%.

Expected goals race
123450′15′30′45′60′75′90′1.85Abdulelah Al Amri 41′4.95Maxi Araújo 80′
Saudi Arabia Uruguay ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Maxi Araújo · 5′ · xG 0.11 · Shot On TargetFederico Viñas · 5′ · xG 0.28 · Shot BlockedSalem Al Dawsari · 18′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetRodrigo Bentancur · 21′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetAbdulelah Al Amri · 38′ · xG 0.35 · Shot On TargetAbdullah Al Khaibari · 39′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetMohamed Kanno · 40′ · xG 0.28 · Shot On TargetAbdulelah Al Amri · 41′ · xG 0.91 · GoalFederico Viñas · 45′ · xG 0.25 · Shot On TargetDarwin Núñez · 45'+1′ · xG 0.41 · Shot Off TargetFederico Viñas · 46′ · xG 0.20 · Shot On TargetFederico Viñas · 50′ · xG 0.30 · Shot Off TargetMathías Olivera · 53′ · xG 0.26 · Shot BlockedManuel Ugarte · 54′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetAgustín Canobbio · 59′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetManuel Ugarte · 60′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetJuan Manuel Sanabria · 60′ · xG 0.21 · Shot Off TargetFederico Valverde · 67′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetGuillermo Varela · 67′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedNicolás de la Cruz · 79′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedFederico Viñas · 80′ · xG 0.35 · Shot On TargetMaxi Araújo · 80′ · xG 0.28 · Goal - VolleyJuan Manuel Sanabria · 82′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedSebastián Cáceres · 83′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetBrian Rodríguez · 83′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetMohamed Kanno · 87′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedSaud Abdulhamid · 87′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetNicolás de la Cruz · 90'+1′ · xG 0.20 · Shot On TargetFederico Valverde · 90'+3′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetSebastián Cáceres · 90'+3′ · xG 0.21 · Shot Off TargetFederico Valverde · 90'+5′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedGuillermo Varela · 90'+6′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetBrian Rodríguez · 90'+6′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetJuan Manuel Sanabria · 90'+8′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Blocked
Saudi Arabia (attacking →) Uruguay (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Saudi Arabia  ·  match stats  ·  Uruguay
33.2 Possession 66.8
7 Shots 27
3 On Target 10
4 Corners 14
11 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 6
9 Saves 2
1 Yellows 0
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Saudi Arabia 15%draw 20%Uruguay 66%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Saudi Arabia 1700, Uruguay 1900. The model priced this Saudi Arabia 15% / draw 20% / Uruguay 66%, most likely score 0–2. Reality had other plans. The result moves 13 Elo points from Uruguay to Saudi Arabia — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
41' GOALGoal! Saudi Arabia 1, Uruguay 0. Abdulelah Al Amri (Saudi Arabia) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal following a corner.
44' YELLOWAbdulelah Al Amri (Saudi Arabia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
45' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Juan Manuel Sanabria replaces Matías Viña.
45' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Agustín Canobbio replaces Darwin Núñez.
63' SUBSubstitution, Saudi Arabia. Nasser Al Dawsari replaces Musab Al Juwayr.
72' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Nicolás de la Cruz replaces Manuel Ugarte.
80' GOALGoal! Saudi Arabia 1, Uruguay 1. Maxi Araújo (Uruguay) left footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the bottom left corner.
81' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Brian Rodríguez replaces Maxi Araújo.
81' SUBSubstitution, Saudi Arabia. Nawaf Bu Washl replaces Mohammed Abu Al Shamat.
90' SUBSubstitution, Uruguay. Rodrigo Aguirre replaces Federico Viñas.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Saudi Arabia. Abdullah Al Hamddan replaces Moteb Al Harbi.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Saudi Arabia. Alaa Al Hejji replaces Feras Al Brikan.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Saudi Arabia. Ali Lajami replaces Saud Abdulhamid.
Lineups
Saudi Arabia
4-4-2
  • 21Mohammed Al-Owais G
  • 5Hassan Al-Tambakti CD-L
  • 4Abdulelah Al-Amri CD-R
  • 24Moteb Al-Harbi LB
  • 12Saud Abdulhamid RB
  • 15Abdullah Al-Khaibari CM-L
  • 23Mohamed Kanno CM-R
  • 10Salem Al-Dawsari LM
  • 26Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat RM
  • 7Musab Al-Juwayr CF-L
  • 9Feras Al-Brikan CF-R
Subs: Nasser Al-Dawsari, Nawaf Boushal, Abdullah Al-Hamdan, Ala Al-Hajji, Ali Lajami
Uruguay
4-2-3-1
  • 23Fernando Muslera G
  • 16Mathías Olivera CD-L
  • 3Sebastián Cáceres CD-R
  • 17Matías Viña LB
  • 13Guillermo Varela RB
  • 21Federico Viñas AM
  • 6Rodrigo Bentancur LM
  • 5Manuel Ugarte RM
  • 9Darwin Núñez F
  • 20Maxi Araújo AM-L
  • 8Federico Valverde AM-R
Subs: Juan Manuel Sanabria, Agustín Canobbio, Nicolás de la Cruz, Brian Rodríguez, Rodrigo Aguirre
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).