World Cup 2026

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Matchday 15 · Group D · 2026-06-25
Turkey
xG 0.00
HT 2–13 – 2
USA
xG 8.24
Turkey Arda Güler 10′, Baris Alper Yilmaz 31′, Kaan Ayhan 90+8′  ·  USA Auston Trusty 3′, Sebastian Berhalter 49′
SoFi Stadium · 70,492 attendance
The story

A genuine shock — the model gave Turkey just 17% before kick-off, and they beat USA anyway. The xG race tells a different story though: USA created more (8.24 vs 0.00) and will feel hard done by. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
1234567890′15′30′45′60′75′90′0.008.24Auston Trusty 3′Arda Güler 10′Baris Alper Yilmaz 31′Sebastian Berhalter 49′Kaan Ayhan 90′
Turkey USA ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Giovanni Reyna · 1′ · xG 0.17 · Shot BlockedAuston Trusty · 2′ · xG 0.29 · Shot On TargetAuston Trusty · 3′ · xG 0.22 · GoalArda Güler · 10′ · xG 0.54 · GoalBrenden Aaronson · 13′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedBrenden Aaronson · 13′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetMiles Robinson · 29′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off TargetOrkun Kökçü · 31′ · xG 0.81 · Shot Off TargetBaris Alper Yilmaz · 31′ · xG 0.87 · GoalAbdülkerim Bardakci · 40′ · xG 0.32 · Shot BlockedKenan Yildiz · 43′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedWeston McKennie · 45′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetAuston Trusty · 45'+3′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetSebastian Berhalter · 49′ · xG 0.12 · GoalChristian Pulisic · 62′ · xG 0.17 · Shot On TargetBrenden Aaronson · 62′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Off TargetRicardo Pepi · 63′ · xG 0.41 · Shot Off TargetChristian Pulisic · 63′ · xG 0.48 · Shot On TargetWeston McKennie · 63′ · xG 0.42 · Shot BlockedWeston McKennie · 66′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetKenan Yildiz · 72′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetChristian Pulisic · 77′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetOrkun Kökçü · 81′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetÁlex Zendejas · 90'+3′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedRicardo Pepi · 90'+5′ · xG 0.17 · Shot BlockedCan Uzun · 90'+8′ · xG 0.31 · Shot BlockedKaan Ayhan · 90'+8′ · xG 0.92 · Goal
Turkey (attacking →) USA (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Turkey  ·  match stats  ·  USA
47.4 Possession 52.6
9 Shots 18
3 On Target 7
2 Corners 9
13 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 5
5 Saves 1
0 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Turkey 17%draw 21%USA 62%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Turkey 1776, USA 1898. The model priced this Turkey 17% / draw 21% / USA 62%, most likely score 0–1. Reality had other plans. The result moves 36 Elo points from USA to Turkey — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
3' GOALGoal! Türkiye 0, USA 1. Auston Trusty (USA) left footed shot from a difficult angle on the right to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Sebastian Berhalter with a cross following a corner.
10' GOALGoal! Türkiye 1, USA 1. Arda Güler (Türkiye) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Baris Alper Yilmaz.
19' YELLOWSebastian Berhalter (USA) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
31' GOALGoal! Türkiye 2, USA 1. Baris Alper Yilmaz (Türkiye) right footed shot from very close range to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Orkun Kökçü.
49' GOALGoal! Türkiye 2, USA 2. Sebastian Berhalter (USA) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner.
58' SUBSubstitution, USA. Christian Pulisic replaces Timothy Weah.
76' SUBSubstitution, USA. Sergiño Dest replaces Giovanni Reyna.
77' SUBSubstitution, USA. Álex Zendejas replaces Brenden Aaronson.
77' SUBSubstitution, USA. Alex Freeman replaces Joe Scally.
84' SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Çaglar Söyüncü replaces Zeki Çelik.
84' SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Can Uzun replaces Kenan Yildiz.
86' SUBSubstitution, USA. Malik Tillman replaces Weston McKennie.
88' SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Kaan Ayhan replaces Orkun Kökçü.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Mert Müldür replaces Oguz Aydin.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, Türkiye. Irfan Can Kahveci replaces Baris Alper Yilmaz.
90'+8' GOALGoal! Türkiye 3, USA 2. Kaan Ayhan (Türkiye) right footed shot from very close range to the bottom right corner.
Lineups
Türkiye
3-4-2-1
  • 23Ugurcan Çakir G
  • 15Ozan Kabak CD
  • 14Abdülkerim Bardakçi CD-L
  • 2Zeki Çelik CD-R
  • 6Orkun Kökçü CM-L
  • 5Salih Özcan CM-R
  • 13Eren Elmali LM
  • 24Oguz Aydin RM
  • 21Baris Alper Yilmaz F
  • 11Kenan Yildiz CF-L
  • 8Arda Güler CF-R
Subs: Çaglar Söyüncü, Can Uzun, Kaan Ayhan, Mert Müldür, Irfan Can Kahveci
United States
4-3-3
  • 1Matt Turner G
  • 22Mark McKenzie CD-L
  • 12Miles Robinson CD-R
  • 6Auston Trusty LB
  • 23Joe Scally RB
  • 14Sebastian Berhalter CM
  • 7Giovanni Reyna LM
  • 8Weston McKennie RM
  • 9Ricardo Pepi F
  • 21Timothy Weah LF
  • 11Brenden Aaronson RF
Subs: Christian Pulisic, Sergiño Dest, Alejandro Zendejas, Alex Freeman, Malik Tillman
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).