A mild upset: Spain (36% pre-match) got past Argentina after extra time. The xG race (3.67 vs 0.52) says it was as one-sided as the scoreline suggests. The decisive moment came late, in the 106th minute. Tempers frayed — 1 red card shown.
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Spain 2187, Argentina 2195. The model priced this Spain 36% / draw 26% / Argentina 38%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 26 Elo points from Argentina to Spain — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).