World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-06-28
South Africa
xG 0.50
HT 0–00 – 1
Canada
xG 3.26
Canada Stephan Eustáquio 90+2′
SoFi Stadium · 69,237 attendance
The story

A mild upset: Canada (45% pre-match) got past South Africa. The xG race (3.26 vs 0.50) says it was as one-sided as the scoreline suggests. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′0.503.26Stephen Eustaquio 90′
South Africa Canada ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Teboho Mokoena · 6′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetStephen Eustaquio · 7′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetJonathan David · 17′ · xG 0.37 · Shot Off TargetDerek Cornelius · 22′ · xG 0.38 · Shot On TargetTeboho Mokoena · 23′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedTani Oluwaseyi · 35′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetIme Okon · 36′ · xG 0.18 · Shot Off TargetTani Oluwaseyi · 41′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off TargetMoïse Bombito · 44′ · xG 0.52 · Shot BlockedTajon Buchanan · 44′ · xG 0.66 · Shot On TargetOswin Appollis · 62′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetTani Oluwaseyi · 65′ · xG 0.19 · Shot On TargetLuc De Fougerolles · 66′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetThalente Mbatha · 75′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetPromise David · 76′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetJonathan David · 78′ · xG 0.17 · Shot On TargetOswin Appollis · 85′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetStephen Eustaquio · 90'+2′ · xG 0.14 · Goal - Volley
South Africa (attacking →) Canada (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
South Africa  ·  match stats  ·  Canada
58.4 Possession 41.6
6 Shots 12
1 On Target 7
1 Corners 4
10 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0
5 Saves 1
0 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
South Africa 30%draw 25%Canada 45%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: South Africa 1738, Canada 1792. The model priced this South Africa 30% / draw 25% / Canada 45%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 21 Elo points from South Africa to Canada — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
45' SUBSubstitution, South Africa. Thalente Mbatha replaces Relebohile Mofokeng.
54' YELLOWNathan Saliba (Canada) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
59' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Niko Sigur replaces Nathan Saliba.
59' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Luc De Fougerolles replaces Moïse Bombito.
67' YELLOWNiko Sigur (Canada) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
70' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Promise David replaces Tani Oluwaseyi.
70' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Jacob Shaffelburg replaces Liam Millar.
75' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Alphonso Davies replaces Tajon Buchanan.
86' SUBSubstitution, South Africa. Iqraam Rayners replaces Evidence Makgopa.
86' SUBSubstitution, South Africa. Tshepang Moremi replaces Thapelo Maseko.
90'+2' GOALGoal! South Africa 0, Canada 1. Stephen Eustaquio (Canada) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner.
Lineups
South Africa
4-2-3-1
  • 1Ronwen Williams G
  • 14Mbekezeli Mbokazi CD-L
  • 21Ime Okon CD-R
  • 6Aubrey Modiba LB
  • 20Khuliso Mudau RB
  • 10Relebohile Mofokeng AM
  • 13Sphephelo Sithole LM
  • 4Teboho Mokoena RM
  • 17Evidence Makgopa F
  • 7Oswin Appollis AM-L
  • 12Thapelo Maseko AM-R
Subs: Thalente Mbatha, Iqraam Rayners, Tshepang Moremi
Canada
4-4-2
  • 16Maxime Crépeau G
  • 13Derek Cornelius CD-L
  • 15Moïse Bombito CD-R
  • 22Richie Laryea LB
  • 2Alistair Johnston RB
  • 7Stephen Eustáquio CM-L
  • 25Nathan Saliba CM-R
  • 11Liam Millar LM
  • 17Tajon Buchanan RM
  • 12Tani Oluwaseyi CF-L
  • 10Jonathan David CF-R
Subs: Niko Sigur, Luc de Fougerolles, Promise David, Jacob Shaffelburg, Alphonso Davies
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).