Switzerland Rubén Vargas 46′, Johan Manzambi 57′ · Canada Promise David 76′
BC Place · 52,497 attendance
The story
A mild upset: Switzerland (38% pre-match) got past Canada. The xG race tells a different story though: Canada created more (3.11 vs 1.19) and will feel hard done by.
Expected goals race
SwitzerlandCanada● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Switzerland 1873, Canada 1817. The model priced this Switzerland 38% / draw 26% / Canada 36%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 24 Elo points from Canada to Switzerland — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
32'YELLOWCyle Larin (Canada) is shown the yellow card.
32'YELLOWGranit Xhaka (Switzerland) is shown the yellow card.
46'GOALGoal! Switzerland 1, Canada 0. Rubén Vargas (Switzerland) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Johan Manzambi with a cross.
57'GOALGoal! Switzerland 2, Canada 0. Johan Manzambi (Switzerland) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Breel Embolo.
58'SUBSubstitution, Canada. Stephen Eustaquio replaces Mathieu Choinière.
58'SUBSubstitution, Canada. Tani Oluwaseyi replaces Cyle Larin.
58'SUBSubstitution, Canada. Liam Millar replaces Ali Ahmed.
74'SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Michel Aebischer replaces Djibril Sow.
74'SUBSubstitution, Canada. Promise David replaces Tajon Buchanan.
76'GOALGoal! Switzerland 2, Canada 1. Promise David (Canada) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Nathan Saliba.
80'SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Dan Ndoye replaces Rubén Vargas.
83'SUBSubstitution, Canada. Jacob Shaffelburg replaces Richie Laryea.
85'SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Christian Fassnacht replaces Johan Manzambi.