World Cup 2026

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Matchday 14 · Group B · 2026-06-24
Bosnia & Herzegovina
xG 1.82
HT 2–13 – 1
Qatar
xG 1.84
Bosnia & Herzegovina Kerim Alajbegovic 29′, Mahmoud Abunada 34′ (o.g.), Ermin Mahmic 80′  ·  Qatar Hassan Al-Haydos 42′
Lumen Field · 66,925 attendance
The story

A mild upset: Bosnia & Herzegovina (47% pre-match) got past Qatar. The xG race tells a different story though: Qatar created more (1.84 vs 1.82) and will feel hard done by.

Expected goals race
0.511.520′15′30′45′60′75′90′1.82Kerim Alajbegovic 29′Ermin Mahmic 80′1.84Hassan Al Haydos 42′
Bosnia & Herzegovina Qatar ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Ermedin Demirovic · 2′ · xG 0.10 · Shot On TargetIvan Sunjic · 3′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetIvan Basic · 17′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off TargetIvan Basic · 18′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedKerim Alajbegovic · 23′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedKerim Alajbegovic · 29′ · xG 0.10 · GoalIvan Basic · 33′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedNikola Katic · 33′ · xG 0.31 · Shot Off Target? · 38′ · xG 0.19 · Shot Hit WoodworkHassan Al Haydos · 42′ · xG 0.76 · GoalBoualem Khoukhi · 45′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off Target? · 45'+3′ · xG 0.21 · Shot Hit WoodworkPedro Miguel · 45'+3′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetAkram Afif · 57′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetAkram Afif · 60′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetEsmir Bajraktarevic · 76′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetEsmir Bajraktarevic · 79′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetIvan Basic · 80′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedStjepan Radeljic · 80′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedErmin Mahmic · 80′ · xG 0.31 · GoalAhmed Al Ganehi · 86′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetPedro Miguel · 90'+4′ · xG 0.04 · Shot On TargetAlmoez Ali · 90'+4′ · xG 0.32 · Shot On Target
Bosnia & Herzegovina (attacking →) Qatar (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Bosnia & Herzegovina  ·  match stats  ·  Qatar
54.4 Possession 45.6
14 Shots 9
5 On Target 3
5 Corners 5
9 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 3
2 Saves 3
1 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Bosnia & Herzegovina 47%draw 25%Qatar 28%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1731, Qatar 1659. The model priced this Bosnia & Herzegovina 47% / draw 25% / Qatar 28%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 30 Elo points from Qatar to Bosnia & Herzegovina — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
29' GOALGoal! Bosnia and Herzegovina 1, Qatar 0. Kerim Alajbegovic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) right footed shot from outside the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Ivan Basic.
34' GOALOwn Goal by Mahmoud Abunada, Qatar. Bosnia and Herzegovina 2, Qatar 0.
42' GOALGoal! Bosnia and Herzegovina 2, Qatar 1. Hassan Al Haydos (Qatar) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Edmílson Junior.
45' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Benjamin Tahirovic replaces Ivan Sunjic.
45' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Amar Memic replaces Arjan Malic.
45' SUBSubstitution, Qatar. Abdulaziz Hatem replaces Jassem Gaber.
56' SUBSubstitution, Qatar. Ahmed Al Ganehi replaces Hassan Al Haydos because of an injury.
63' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dennis Hadzikadunic replaces Nikola Katic.
64' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Ermin Mahmic replaces Edin Dzeko.
72' SUBSubstitution, Qatar. Almoez Ali replaces Karim Boudiaf.
78' YELLOWAhmed Fathy (Qatar) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
79' SUBSubstitution, Qatar. Ahmed Alaa replaces Edmílson Junior.
79' SUBSubstitution, Qatar. Mohammad Al Manai replaces Ahmed Fathy.
80' GOALGoal! Bosnia and Herzegovina 3, Qatar 1. Ermin Mahmic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Dennis Hadzikadunic following a corner.
82' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dzenis Burnic replaces Kerim Alajbegovic.
82' YELLOWErmin Mahmic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) is shown the yellow card for excessive celebration.
Lineups
Bosnia-Herzegovina
4-4-2
  • 1Nikola Vasilj G
  • 21Stjepan Radeljic CD-L
  • 18Nikola Katic CD-R
  • 5Sead Kolasinac LB
  • 24Arjan Malic RB
  • 14Ivan Sunjic CM-L
  • 13Ivan Basic CM-R
  • 19Kerim Alajbegovic LM
  • 20Esmir Bajraktarevic RM
  • 11Edin Dzeko CF-L
  • 10Ermedin Demirovic CF-R
Subs: Benjamin Tahirovic, Amar Memic, Dennis Hadzikadunic, Ermin Mahmic, Dzenis Burnic
Qatar
4-3-3
  • 1Mahmoud Abunada G
  • 4Issa Laye CD-L
  • 16Boualem Khoukhi CD-R
  • 18Sultan Al-Brake LB
  • 2Pedro Miguel RB
  • 20Ahmed Fathy CM
  • 12Karim Boudiaf LM
  • 5Jassem Gaber RM
  • 11Akram Afif F
  • 10Hassan Al-Haydos LF
  • 8Edmílson Junior RF
Subs: Abdulaziz Hatem, Ahmed Al-Ganehi, Almoez Ali, Ahmed Alaaeldin, Mohamed Manai
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).