World Cup 2026

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Matchday 3 · Group B · 2026-06-13
Qatar
xG 1.15
HT 0–11 – 1
Switzerland
xG 6.66
Qatar Miro Muheim 90+4′ (o.g.)  ·  Switzerland Breel Embolo 17′ (pen.)
Levi's Stadium · 67,966 attendance
The story

A 1–1 draw — the model had that at 21%. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
12345670′15′30′45′60′75′90′1.156.66Breel Embolo 17′
Qatar Switzerland ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Breel Embolo · 1′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedEdmílson Junior · 2′ · xG 0.22 · Shot On TargetDan Ndoye · 6′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetDan Ndoye · 10′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetManuel Akanji · 12′ · xG 0.53 · Shot On TargetBreel Embolo · 17′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - ScoredDenis Zakaria · 21′ · xG 0.20 · Shot On TargetRubén Vargas · 21′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedRubén Vargas · 24′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedIssa Laye · 30′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetDan Ndoye · 34′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedDan Ndoye · 35′ · xG 0.19 · Shot Off TargetBreel Embolo · 42′ · xG 0.32 · Shot BlockedEdmílson Junior · 43′ · xG 0.28 · Shot On TargetHomam El Amin · 44′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetDan Ndoye · 45'+1′ · xG 0.20 · Shot On TargetRubén Vargas · 45'+3′ · xG 0.35 · Shot Off TargetDenis Zakaria · 45'+4′ · xG 0.35 · Shot BlockedMichel Aebischer · 45'+6′ · xG 0.26 · Shot BlockedNico Elvedi · 48′ · xG 0.54 · Shot BlockedGranit Xhaka · 49′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetDan Ndoye · 50′ · xG 0.18 · Shot Off Target? · 53′ · xG 0.55 · Shot BlockedNico Elvedi · 63′ · xG 0.32 · Shot BlockedGranit Xhaka · 67′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetFabian Rieder · 72′ · xG 0.19 · Shot BlockedKarim Boudiaf · 75′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off TargetRubén Vargas · 75′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetBreel Embolo · 76′ · xG 0.18 · Shot Off TargetJohan Manzambi · 81′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetJohan Manzambi · 85′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedAhmed Alaa · 90′ · xG 0.18 · Shot On TargetZeki Amdouni · 90'+2′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedArdon Jashari · 90'+7′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off Target
Qatar (attacking →) Switzerland (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Qatar  ·  match stats  ·  Switzerland
32 Possession 68
6 Shots 26
3 On Target 7
3 Corners 10
12 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1
5 Saves 3
2 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Qatar 17%draw 21%Switzerland 61%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Qatar 1680, Switzerland 1850. The model priced this Qatar 17% / draw 21% / Switzerland 61%, most likely score 0–1. Reality had other plans. The result moves 11 Elo points from Switzerland to Qatar — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
16' YELLOWMahmoud Abunada (Qatar) is shown the yellow card.
17' PEN GOALGoal! Qatar 0, Switzerland 1. Breel Embolo (Switzerland) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
23' YELLOWJassem Gaber (Qatar) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
42' YELLOWDenis Zakaria (Switzerland) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
60' SUBSubstitution, Qatar. Ahmed Fathy replaces Ayoub Al Oui.
60' SUBSubstitution, Qatar. Karim Boudiaf replaces Jassem Gaber.
60' SUBSubstitution, Qatar. Ahmed Alaa replaces Yusuf Abdurisag.
65' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Fabian Rieder replaces Michel Aebischer.
65' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Johan Manzambi replaces Dan Ndoye.
79' SUBSubstitution, Qatar. Mohammad Al Mannai replaces Assim Madibo.
79' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Zeki Amdouni replaces Rubén Vargas.
88' SUBSubstitution, Qatar. Hassan Al Haydos replaces Edmílson Junior.
89' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Ardon Jashari replaces Remo Freuler.
89' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Miro Muheim replaces Ricardo Rodríguez.
90'+4' GOALOwn Goal by Miro Muheim, Switzerland. Qatar 1, Switzerland 1.
Lineups
Qatar
4-3-3
  • 1Mahmoud Abunada G
  • 16Boualem Khoukhi CD-L
  • 2Pedro Miguel CD-R
  • 14Homam Ahmed LB
  • 13Ayoub Al-Oui RB
  • 23Assim Madibo CM
  • 4Issa Laye LM
  • 5Jassem Gaber RM
  • 15Yusuf Abdurisag F
  • 11Akram Afif LF
  • 8Edmílson Junior RF
Subs: Ahmed Fathy, Karim Boudiaf, Ahmed Alaaeldin, Mohamed Manai, Hassan Al-Haydos
Switzerland
4-3-3
  • 1Gregor Kobel G
  • 5Manuel Akanji CD-L
  • 4Nico Elvedi CD-R
  • 13Ricardo Rodríguez LB
  • 6Denis Zakaria RB
  • 10Granit Xhaka CM
  • 8Remo Freuler LM
  • 20Michel Aebischer RM
  • 7Breel Embolo F
  • 17Rubén Vargas LF
  • 11Dan Ndoye RF
Subs: Fabian Rieder, Johan Manzambi, Zeki Amdouni, Ardon Jashari, Miro Muheim
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).