World Cup 2026

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Matchday 5 · Group G · 2026-06-15
Belgium
xG 2.85
HT 0–11 – 1
Egypt
xG 2.32
Belgium Mohamed Hany 66′ (o.g.)  ·  Egypt Emam Ashour 19′
Lumen Field · 66,775 attendance
The story

A 1–1 draw — the model had that at 22%.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′2.852.32Emam Ashour 20′
Belgium Egypt ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Leandro Trossard · 6′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedKevin De Bruyne · 7′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetEmam Ashour · 20′ · xG 0.10 · GoalYouri Tielemans · 31′ · xG 0.19 · Shot Off TargetMostafa Zico · 33′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetLeandro Trossard · 38′ · xG 0.20 · Shot BlockedLeandro Trossard · 39′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedKevin De Bruyne · 43′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedJérémy Doku · 45'+1′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetOmar Marmoush · 45'+4′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetMohamed Hany · 45'+4′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedMostafa Zico · 48′ · xG 0.27 · Shot BlockedOmar Marmoush · 48′ · xG 0.32 · Shot Blocked? · 53′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Hit WoodworkMohamed Salah · 55′ · xG 0.30 · Shot On TargetEmam Ashour · 55′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Off TargetMarwan Attia · 57′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedOmar Marmoush · 59′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetYouri Tielemans · 62′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetKevin De Bruyne · 62′ · xG 0.22 · Shot On TargetOmar Marmoush · 65′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedThomas Meunier · 73′ · xG 0.18 · Shot On TargetRomelu Lukaku · 78′ · xG 0.21 · Shot BlockedZizo · 79′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedBrandon Mechele · 83′ · xG 0.30 · Shot On TargetOmar Marmoush · 84′ · xG 0.21 · Shot BlockedRomelu Lukaku · 87′ · xG 0.32 · Shot Off TargetMohamed Hany · 90′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedBrandon Mechele · 90'+4′ · xG 0.37 · Shot Off Target
Belgium (attacking →) Egypt (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Belgium  ·  match stats  ·  Egypt
53.6 Possession 46.4
15 Shots 14
3 On Target 3
2 Corners 7
15 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 1
2 Saves 3
2 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Belgium 60%draw 22%Egypt 18%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Belgium 1950, Egypt 1790. The model priced this Belgium 60% / draw 22% / Egypt 18%, most likely score 1–0. Reality had other plans. The result moves 11 Elo points from Belgium to Egypt — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
13' YELLOWMarwan Attia (Egypt) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
14' YELLOWTimothy Castagne (Belgium) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
20' GOALGoal! Belgium 0, Egypt 1. Emam Ashour (Egypt) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Mohamed Salah.
34' YELLOWAhmed Fatouh (Egypt) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
56' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Nicolas Raskin replaces Timothy Castagne.
56' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Maxim De Cuyper replaces Amadou Onana.
66' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Romelu Lukaku replaces Charles De Ketelaere.
66' GOALOwn Goal by Mohamed Hany, Egypt. Belgium 1, Egypt 1.
71' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Ramy Rabia replaces Emam Ashour.
75' YELLOWMaxim De Cuyper (Belgium) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
76' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Zizo replaces Mostafa Zico.
76' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Hamza Abdelkarim replaces Mohamed Salah.
86' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Matias Fernandez-Pardo replaces Jérémy Doku.
86' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Hans Vanaken replaces Kevin De Bruyne.
88' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Karim Hafez replaces Ahmed Fatouh.
88' SUBSubstitution, Egypt. Ibrahim Adel replaces Hamdi Fathy.
Lineups
Belgium
4-2-3-1
  • 1Thibaut Courtois G
  • 4Brandon Mechele CD-L
  • 25Nathan Ngoy CD-R
  • 21Timothy Castagne LB
  • 15Thomas Meunier RB
  • 7Kevin De Bruyne AM
  • 8Youri Tielemans LM
  • 24Amadou Onana RM
  • 17Charles De Ketelaere F
  • 11Jérémy Doku AM-L
  • 10Leandro Trossard AM-R
Subs: Nicolas Raskin, Maxim De Cuyper, Romelu Lukaku, Matias Fernandez-Pardo, Hans Vanaken
Egypt
4-2-3-1
  • 23Mostafa Shoubir G
  • 14Hamdy Fathy CD-L
  • 2Yasser Ibrahim CD-R
  • 13Ahmed Fatouh LB
  • 3Mohamed Hany RB
  • 10Mohamed Salah AM
  • 17Mohanad Lashin LM
  • 19Marawan Attia RM
  • 22Omar Marmoush F
  • 8Emam Ashour AM-L
  • 11Mostafa Zico AM-R
Subs: Ramy Rabia, Zizo, Hamza Abdelkarim, Karim Hafez, Ibrahim Adel
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).