World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-07-03
Argentina
xG 4.87
AET · HT 1–03 – 2
Cape Verde
xG 1.68
Argentina Lionel Messi 29′, Lisandro Martínez 92′, Diney Borges 111′ (o.g.)  ·  Cape Verde Deroy Duarte 59′, Sidny Lopes Cabral 103′
Hard Rock Stadium · 64,478 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Argentina (91% pre-match) beat Cape Verde 3–2 after extra time. The decisive moment came late, in the 111th minute.

Expected goals race
123450′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′120′4.87Lionel Messi 29′Lisandro Martínez 92′1.68Deroy Duarte 59′Sidny Cabral 103′
Argentina Cape Verde ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Ryan Mendes · 7′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedLionel Messi · 15′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off TargetLionel Messi · 18′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetLionel Messi · 29′ · xG 0.45 · GoalEnzo Fernández · 45′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetJovane Cabral · 49′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedRyan Mendes · 49′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off TargetDeroy Duarte · 54′ · xG 0.08 · Shot On TargetDeroy Duarte · 59′ · xG 0.19 · GoalLionel Messi · 63′ · xG 0.35 · Shot On TargetEnzo Fernández · 67′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetLionel Messi · 69′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedLionel Messi · 73′ · xG 0.12 · Shot On TargetNico González · 73′ · xG 0.38 · Shot Off TargetKevin Pina · 78′ · xG 0.04 · Shot Off TargetNico González · 84′ · xG 0.38 · Shot Off TargetAlexis Mac Allister · 87′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedAlexis Mac Allister · 89′ · xG 0.30 · Shot BlockedLeandro Paredes · 90'+2′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetLionel Messi · 90'+5′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetEnzo Fernández · 90'+5′ · xG 0.32 · Shot On TargetLisandro Martínez · 92′ · xG 0.19 · GoalDiney Borges · 97′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetSteven Moreira · 97′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedLionel Messi · 98′ · xG 0.20 · Shot BlockedJulián Alvarez · 98′ · xG 0.28 · Shot BlockedEnzo Fernández · 99′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedSidny Cabral · 103′ · xG 0.08 · GoalLionel Messi · 105'+1′ · xG 0.21 · Shot On TargetGonzalo Montiel · 105'+1′ · xG 0.27 · Shot BlockedYannick Semedo · 108′ · xG 0.03 · Shot Off TargetCristian Romero · 111′ · xG 0.40 · Shot Off TargetWilly Semedo · 114′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedSidny Cabral · 116′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetDiney Borges · 119′ · xG 0.17 · Shot On TargetHélio Varela · 120'+1′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedJamiro Monteiro · 120'+2′ · xG 0.16 · Shot BlockedHélio Varela · 120'+2′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off Target
Argentina (attacking →) Cape Verde (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Argentina  ·  match stats  ·  Cape Verde
63.6 Possession 36.4
22 Shots 16
10 On Target 5
8 Corners 8
13 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 2
3 Saves 8
1 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Argentina 91%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Argentina 2147, Cape Verde 1687. The model priced this Argentina 91% / draw 6% / Cape Verde 2%, most likely score 3–0. The model called it. The result moves 3 Elo points from Cape Verde to Argentina — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
29' GOALGoal! Argentina 1, Cabo Verde 0. Lionel Messi (Argentina) left footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the top right corner. Assisted by Lisandro Martínez with a through ball.
59' GOALGoal! Argentina 1, Cabo Verde 1. Deroy Duarte (Cabo Verde) right footed shot from a difficult angle on the right to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Ryan Mendes.
63' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Julián Alvarez replaces Lautaro Martínez.
64' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Nico González replaces Thiago Almada.
67' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Jamiro Monteiro replaces Laros Duarte.
67' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Dailon Livramento replaces Nuno da Costa.
68' YELLOWKevin Pina (Cabo Verde) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
80' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Willy Semedo replaces Ryan Mendes.
80' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Hélio Varela replaces Jovane Cabral.
84' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Leandro Paredes replaces Rodrigo De Paul.
86' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Nicolás Tagliafico replaces Facundo Medina because of an injury.
92' GOALGoal! Argentina 2, Cabo Verde 1. Lisandro Martínez (Argentina) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Alexis Mac Allister with a headed pass following a corner.
100' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Yannick Semedo replaces Deroy Duarte.
100' SUBSubstitution, Cabo Verde. Gilson Benchimol replaces Kevin Pina.
103' GOALGoal! Argentina 2, Cabo Verde 2. Sidny Cabral (Cabo Verde) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Yannick Semedo.
104' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Gonzalo Montiel replaces Nahuel Molina.
111' GOALOwn Goal by Diney Borges, Cabo Verde. Argentina 3, Cabo Verde 2.
115' YELLOWGonzalo Montiel (Argentina) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
Lineups
Argentina
4-4-2
  • 23Emiliano Martínez G
  • 6Lisandro Martínez CD-L
  • 13Cristian Romero CD-R
  • 25Facundo Medina LB
  • 26Nahuel Molina RB
  • 24Enzo Fernández CM-L
  • 20Alexis Mac Allister CM-R
  • 16Thiago Almada LM
  • 7Rodrigo De Paul RM
  • 22Lautaro Martínez CF-L
  • 10Lionel Messi CF-R
Subs: Julián Álvarez, Nico González, Leandro Paredes, Nicolás Tagliafico, Gonzalo Montiel
Cape Verde
4-1-4-1
  • 1Vozinha G
  • 3Diney Borges CD-L
  • 4Pico Lopes CD-R
  • 6Kevin Pina DM
  • 13Sidny Lopes Cabral LB
  • 22Steven Moreira RB
  • 14Deroy Duarte CM-L
  • 15Laros Duarte CM-R
  • 7Jovane Cabral LM
  • 20Ryan Mendes RM
  • 21Nuno da Costa F
Subs: Jamiro Monteiro, Dailon Livramento, Willy Semedo, Hélio Varela, Yannick Semedo, Gilson Benchimol
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).