Mexico made a statement — a 3–0 dismantling of Czech Republic. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.
Expected goals race
Czech RepublicMexico● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Czech Republic 1745, Mexico 1898. The model priced this Czech Republic 14% / draw 20% / Mexico 66%, most likely score 0–2. The model called it. The result moves 21 Elo points from Czech Republic to Mexico — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
55'GOALGoal! Czechia 0, Mexico 1. Mateo Chávez (Mexico) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Luis Romo.
61'GOALGoal! Czechia 0, Mexico 2. Julián Quiñones (Mexico) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Jorge Sánchez following a fast break.
63'SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Santiago Giménez replaces Guillermo Martínez.
63'SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Obed Vargas replaces Luis Romo.
64'YELLOWEdson Álvarez (Mexico) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
64'SUBSubstitution, Czechia. Patrik Schick replaces Adam Hlozek.
87'SUBSubstitution, Czechia. Alexandr Sojka replaces Tomás Soucek because of an injury.
90'+4'GOALGoal! Czechia 0, Mexico 3. Álvaro Fidalgo (Mexico) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Roberto Alvarado.