World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-06-30
Mexico
xG 2.63
HT 1–02 – 0
Ecuador
xG 1.10
Mexico Julián Quiñones 31′, Raúl Jiménez 45+1′
Estadio Banorte · 80,824 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Mexico (54% pre-match) beat Ecuador 2–0. Tempers frayed — 1 red card shown.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′2.63Julián Quiñones 22′Raúl Jiménez 31′1.10
Mexico Ecuador ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Roberto Alvarado · 4′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedGilberto Mora · 5′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetLuis Romo · 6′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetRaúl Jiménez · 7′ · xG 0.29 · Shot Off TargetRoberto Alvarado · 14′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedGilberto Mora · 15′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off Target? · 18′ · xG 0.19 · Shot Hit WoodworkJulián Quiñones · 22′ · xG 0.17 · GoalRaúl Jiménez · 31′ · xG 0.21 · GoalJohn Yeboah · 40′ · xG 0.13 · Shot On TargetRaúl Jiménez · 44′ · xG 0.30 · Shot Off TargetRaúl Jiménez · 45′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetRoberto Alvarado · 46′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetPedro Vite · 51′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetGilberto Mora · 52′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedCésar Montes · 67′ · xG 0.34 · Shot On TargetJohan Vásquez · 67′ · xG 0.35 · Shot Off TargetKevin Rodríguez · 74′ · xG 0.27 · Shot Off TargetMoisés Caicedo · 85′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetYaimar Medina · 88′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetJordy Caicedo · 89′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedOrbelín Pineda · 90'+2′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off Target
Mexico (attacking →) Ecuador (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Mexico  ·  match stats  ·  Ecuador
42.8 Possession 57.2
15 Shots 7
3 On Target 1
3 Corners 8
10 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1
1 Saves 1
0 Yellows 3
0 Reds 1
What the model expected
Mexico 54%draw 24%Ecuador 23%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Mexico 1918, Ecuador 1853. The model priced this Mexico 54% / draw 24% / Ecuador 23%, most likely score 1–1. The model called it. The result moves 25 Elo points from Ecuador to Mexico — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
22' GOALGoal! Mexico 1, Ecuador 0. Julián Quiñones (Mexico) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Roberto Alvarado with a through ball.
31' GOALGoal! Mexico 2, Ecuador 0. Raúl Jiménez (Mexico) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Julián Quiñones.
45'+1' YELLOWAlan Franco (Ecuador) is shown the yellow card.
45' SUBSubstitution, Ecuador. Ángelo Preciado replaces Joel Ordóñez.
45' SUBSubstitution, Ecuador. Yaimar Medina replaces Alan Franco.
58' SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Brian Gutiérrez replaces Gilberto Mora.
59' SUBSubstitution, Ecuador. Kevin Rodríguez replaces Enner Valencia.
73' SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Obed Vargas replaces Luis Romo.
74' SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Santiago Giménez replaces Raúl Jiménez.
79' SUBSubstitution, Ecuador. Jordy Caicedo replaces John Yeboah.
79' SUBSubstitution, Ecuador. Kendry Páez replaces Nilson Angulo.
80' SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Orbelín Pineda replaces Julián Quiñones.
80' SUBSubstitution, Mexico. Israel Reyes replaces Roberto Alvarado.
90'+3' YELLOWKendry Páez (Ecuador) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+5' REDPiero Hincapié (Ecuador) is shown the red card.
90'+9' YELLOWMoisés Caicedo (Ecuador) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
Lineups
Mexico
4-3-3
  • 1Raúl Rangel G
  • 5Johan Vásquez CD-L
  • 3César Montes CD-R
  • 23Jesús Gallardo LB
  • 2Jorge Sánchez RB
  • 6Érik Lira CM
  • 7Luis Romo LM
  • 19Gilberto Mora RM
  • 9Raúl Jiménez F
  • 16Julián Quiñones LF
  • 25Roberto Alvarado RF
Subs: Brian Gutiérrez, Obed Vargas, Santiago Gimenez, Orbelín Pineda, Israel Reyes
Ecuador
4-4-2
  • 1Hernán Galíndez G
  • 6Willian Pacho CD-L
  • 4Joel Ordóñez CD-R
  • 3Piero Hincapié LB
  • 21Alan Franco RB
  • 15Pedro Vite CM-L
  • 23Moisés Caicedo CM-R
  • 20Nilson Angulo LM
  • 9John Yeboah RM
  • 13Enner Valencia CF-L
  • 19Gonzalo Plata CF-R
Subs: Ángelo Preciado, Yaimar Medina, Kevin Rodríguez, Jordy Caicedo, Kendry Páez
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).