World Cup 2026

← All matches
Quarter-final · Knockout · 2026-07-11
Argentina
xG 4.16
AET · HT 1–03 – 1
Switzerland
xG 1.40
Argentina Alexis Mac Allister 10′, Julián Álvarez 112′, Lautaro Martínez 120+1′  ·  Switzerland Dan Ndoye 67′
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · 69,045 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Argentina (66% pre-match) beat Switzerland 3–1 after extra time. The decisive moment came late, in the 120th minute. Tempers frayed — 1 red card shown.

Expected goals race
12340′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′120′4.16Alexis Mac Allister 10′Julián Alvarez 112′Lautaro Martínez 120′1.40Dan Ndoye 67′
Argentina Switzerland ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Denis Zakaria · 1′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedGranit Xhaka · 7′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetAlexis Mac Allister · 9′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedAlexis Mac Allister · 9′ · xG 0.27 · Shot Off TargetAlexis Mac Allister · 10′ · xG 0.39 · Goal - HeaderDjibril Sow · 20′ · xG 0.08 · Shot On TargetFabian Rieder · 47′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedNahuel Molina · 50′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetJulián Alvarez · 52′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedDan Ndoye · 55′ · xG 0.20 · Shot BlockedBreel Embolo · 60′ · xG 0.31 · Shot On TargetDan Ndoye · 65′ · xG 0.19 · Shot On TargetGranit Xhaka · 66′ · xG 0.04 · Shot On TargetDan Ndoye · 67′ · xG 0.19 · GoalAlexis Mac Allister · 89′ · xG 0.53 · Shot Off TargetLionel Messi · 90'+2′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetNico González · 90'+3′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetLisandro Martínez · 90'+9′ · xG 0.24 · Shot On TargetLautaro Martínez · 91′ · xG 0.22 · Shot BlockedNico González · 91′ · xG 0.22 · Shot BlockedJulián Alvarez · 92′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off TargetThiago Almada · 93′ · xG 0.18 · Shot On Target? · 95′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Hit WoodworkGranit Xhaka · 99′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetLionel Messi · 103′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedArdon Jashari · 105′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetLisandro Martínez · 105'+1′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedCristian Romero · 105'+2′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Off TargetLionel Messi · 112′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetJulián Alvarez · 112′ · xG 0.07 · GoalLionel Messi · 119′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedThiago Almada · 120'+1′ · xG 0.45 · Shot On TargetLautaro Martínez · 120'+1′ · xG 0.23 · Goal
Argentina (attacking →) Switzerland (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Argentina  ·  match stats  ·  Switzerland
59 Possession 41
22 Shots 11
7 On Target 5
8 Corners 2
14 Fouls 18
4 Offsides 3
4 Saves 4
3 Yellows 1
0 Reds 1
What the model expected
Argentina 66%draw 19%Switzerland 14%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Argentina 2158, Switzerland 1951. The model priced this Argentina 66% / draw 19% / Switzerland 14%, most likely score 2–0. The model called it. The result moves 18 Elo points from Switzerland to Argentina — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
10' GOALGoal! Argentina 1, Switzerland 0. Alexis Mac Allister (Argentina) header from the left side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Lionel Messi with a cross following a corner.
44' YELLOWBreel Embolo (Switzerland) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
67' GOALGoal! Argentina 1, Switzerland 1. Dan Ndoye (Switzerland) right footed shot from a difficult angle on the left to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Ricardo Rodríguez with a through ball.
72' REDSecond yellow card to Breel Embolo (Switzerland).
78' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Nico González replaces Nicolás Tagliafico.
85' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Lautaro Martínez replaces Rodrigo De Paul.
85' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Gonzalo Montiel replaces Nahuel Molina.
86' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Silvan Widmer replaces Djibril Sow.
86' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Zeki Amdouni replaces Dan Ndoye.
86' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Miro Muheim replaces Fabian Rieder.
90'+5' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Eray Cömert replaces Ricardo Rodríguez.
90' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Thiago Almada replaces Enzo Fernández.
96' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Ardon Jashari replaces Denis Zakaria.
97' YELLOWThiago Almada (Argentina) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
98' YELLOWLautaro Martínez (Argentina) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
105' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. Nicolás Otamendi replaces Cristian Romero.
110' SUBSubstitution, Argentina. José Manuel López replaces Leandro Paredes because of an injury.
112' GOALGoal! Argentina 2, Switzerland 1. Julián Alvarez (Argentina) right footed shot from outside the box to the top right corner. Assisted by José Manuel López.
114' YELLOWJosé Manuel López (Argentina) is shown the yellow card.
115' SUBSubstitution, Switzerland. Rubén Vargas replaces Remo Freuler.
120'+1' GOALGoal! Argentina 3, Switzerland 1. Lautaro Martínez (Argentina) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner following a fast break.
Lineups
Argentina
4-1-3-2
  • 23Emiliano Martínez G
  • 6Lisandro Martínez CD-L
  • 13Cristian Romero CD-R
  • 5Leandro Paredes SW
  • 3Nicolás Tagliafico LB
  • 26Nahuel Molina RB
  • 24Enzo Fernández CM
  • 20Alexis Mac Allister LM
  • 7Rodrigo De Paul RM
  • 9Julián Álvarez CF-L
  • 10Lionel Messi CF-R
Subs: Nico González, Lautaro Martínez, Gonzalo Montiel, Thiago Almada, Nicolás Otamendi, José Manuel López
Switzerland
4-2-3-1
  • 1Gregor Kobel G
  • 5Manuel Akanji CD-L
  • 4Nico Elvedi CD-R
  • 13Ricardo Rodríguez LB
  • 6Denis Zakaria RB
  • 22Fabian Rieder AM
  • 10Granit Xhaka LM
  • 8Remo Freuler RM
  • 7Breel Embolo F
  • 11Dan Ndoye AM-L
  • 15Djibril Sow AM-R
Subs: Silvan Widmer, Zeki Amdouni, Miro Muheim, Eray Cömert, Ardon Jashari, Rubén Vargas
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).