World Cup 2026

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Matchday 7 · Group L · 2026-06-17
England
xG 6.20
HT 2–24 – 2
Croatia
xG 1.92
England Harry Kane 12′ (pen.), Harry Kane 42′, Jude Bellingham 47′, Marcus Rashford 85′  ·  Croatia Martin Baturina 36′, Petar Musa 45+5′
AT&T Stadium · 70,389 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: England (53% pre-match) beat Croatia 4–2. The decisive moment came late, in the 85th minute.

Expected goals race
12345670′15′30′45′60′75′90′6.20Harry Kane 12′Harry Kane 42′Jude Bellingham 47′Marcus Rashford 85′1.92Martin Baturina 36′Petar Musa 45′
England Croatia ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Josip Sutalo · 3′ · xG 0.46 · Shot Off TargetHarry Kane · 8′ · xG 0.17 · Shot BlockedEzri Konsa · 9′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedHarry Kane · 12′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - ScoredNoni Madueke · 16′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedElliot Anderson · 16′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedJude Bellingham · 31′ · xG 0.47 · Shot Off TargetHarry Kane · 35′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off TargetMartin Baturina · 36′ · xG 0.09 · GoalHarry Kane · 42′ · xG 0.26 · Goal - HeaderReece James · 45'+1′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedMario Pasalic · 45'+4′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetPetar Musa · 45'+5′ · xG 0.34 · Goal - VolleyJude Bellingham · 47′ · xG 0.17 · GoalJude Bellingham · 48′ · xG 0.21 · Shot On TargetNico O'Reilly · 49′ · xG 0.35 · Shot Off TargetDeclan Rice · 52′ · xG 0.11 · Shot On TargetNico O'Reilly · 55′ · xG 0.27 · Shot On TargetAnthony Gordon · 56′ · xG 0.52 · Shot On TargetEzri Konsa · 56′ · xG 0.95 · Shot On TargetHarry Kane · 57′ · xG 0.15 · Shot On TargetHarry Kane · 57′ · xG 0.16 · Shot Off TargetAnthony Gordon · 69′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedMarco Pasalic · 76′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetIgor Matanovic · 77′ · xG 0.05 · Shot On TargetPetar Sucic · 81′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetDjed Spence · 82′ · xG 0.28 · Shot On TargetMateo Kovacic · 84′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetMarcus Rashford · 85′ · xG 0.21 · GoalAndrej Kramaric · 90'+4′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedJosko Gvardiol · 90'+5′ · xG 0.54 · Shot BlockedHarry Kane · 90'+6′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off Target
England (attacking →) Croatia (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
England  ·  match stats  ·  Croatia
51.7 Possession 48.3
22 Shots 10
11 On Target 5
8 Corners 2
10 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1
3 Saves 7
0 Yellows 0
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
England 53%draw 24%Croatia 23%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: England 2040, Croatia 1930. The model priced this England 53% / draw 24% / Croatia 23%, most likely score 1–1. The model called it. The result moves 26 Elo points from Croatia to England — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
12' PEN GOALGoal! England 1, Croatia 0. Harry Kane (England) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom right corner.
36' GOALGoal! England 1, Croatia 1. Martin Baturina (Croatia) right footed shot from outside the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Petar Sucic.
42' GOALGoal! England 2, Croatia 1. Harry Kane (England) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Declan Rice with a cross following a corner.
45'+5' GOALGoal! England 2, Croatia 2. Petar Musa (Croatia) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Ivan Perisic with a headed pass.
47' GOALGoal! England 3, Croatia 2. Jude Bellingham (England) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Elliot Anderson.
58' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Mateo Kovacic replaces Luka Modric.
66' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Igor Matanovic replaces Petar Musa.
66' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Marco Pasalic replaces Luka Vuskovic.
72' SUBSubstitution, England. Morgan Rogers replaces Declan Rice.
72' SUBSubstitution, England. Bukayo Saka replaces Noni Madueke.
72' SUBSubstitution, England. Marcus Rashford replaces Anthony Gordon.
78' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Andrej Kramaric replaces Mario Pasalic.
78' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Nikola Vlasic replaces Martin Baturina.
80' SUBSubstitution, England. Djed Spence replaces Jude Bellingham.
85' GOALGoal! England 4, Croatia 2. Marcus Rashford (England) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Bukayo Saka.
87' SUBSubstitution, England. Marc Guéhi replaces John Stones.
Lineups
England
4-2-3-1
  • 1Jordan Pickford G
  • 5John Stones CD-L
  • 2Ezri Konsa CD-R
  • 3Nico O'Reilly LB
  • 24Reece James RB
  • 10Jude Bellingham AM
  • 4Declan Rice LM
  • 8Elliot Anderson RM
  • 9Harry Kane F
  • 18Anthony Gordon AM-L
  • 20Noni Madueke AM-R
Subs: Morgan Rogers, Bukayo Saka, Marcus Rashford, Djed Spence, Marc Guéhi
Croatia
3-4-2-1
  • 1Dominik Livakovic G
  • 22Luka Vuskovic CD
  • 4Josko Gvardiol CD-L
  • 6Josip Sutalo CD-R
  • 15Mario Pasalic CM-L
  • 10Luka Modric CM-R
  • 14Ivan Perisic LM
  • 2Josip Stanisic RM
  • 26Petar Musa F
  • 16Martin Baturina CF-L
  • 17Petar Sucic CF-R
Subs: Mateo Kovacic, Igor Matanovic, Marco Pasalic, Andrej Kramaric, Nikola Vlasic
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).