Ivory Coast Amad Diallo 74′ · Norway Antonio Nusa 39′, Erling Haaland 86′
AT&T Stadium · 69,665 attendance
The story
A mild upset: Norway (44% pre-match) got past Ivory Coast. The decisive moment came late, in the 86th minute.
Expected goals race
Ivory CoastNorway● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Ivory Coast 1818, Norway 1871. The model priced this Ivory Coast 30% / draw 25% / Norway 44%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 21 Elo points from Ivory Coast to Norway — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
39'GOALGoal! Côte d'Ivoire 0, Norway 1. Antonio Nusa (Norway) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Martin Ødegaard.
45'+1'YELLOWAntonio Nusa (Norway) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
71'SUBSubstitution, Norway. Andreas Schjelderup replaces Antonio Nusa.
71'SUBSubstitution, Norway. Oscar Bobb replaces Alexander Sørloth.
74'GOALGoal! Côte d'Ivoire 1, Norway 1. Amad Diallo (Côte d'Ivoire) left footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Nicolas Pépé.
83'SUBSubstitution, Norway. Fredrik Aursnes replaces Marcus Pedersen.
86'GOALGoal! Côte d'Ivoire 1, Norway 2. Erling Haaland (Norway) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Patrick Berg.
87'SUBSubstitution, Côte d'Ivoire. Oumar Diakité replaces Nicolas Pépé.
90'+3'SUBSubstitution, Côte d'Ivoire. Evann Guessand replaces Yan Diomande.