World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-07-01
USA
xG 0.00
HT 1–02 – 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
xG 3.27
USA Folarin Balogun 45′, Malik Tillman 82′
Levi's Stadium · 68,827 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: USA (59% pre-match) beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–0. The xG race tells a different story though: Bosnia & Herzegovina created more (3.27 vs 0.00) and will feel hard done by. Tempers frayed — 1 red card shown.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′0.003.27Folarin Balogun 45′Malik Tillman 82′
USA Bosnia & Herzegovina ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Christian Pulisic · 4′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedErmedin Demirovic · 10′ · xG 0.15 · Shot On TargetFolarin Balogun · 15′ · xG 0.27 · Shot Off TargetFolarin Balogun · 42′ · xG 0.38 · Shot Off TargetFolarin Balogun · 45′ · xG 0.25 · Goal? · 45'+8′ · xG 0.67 · Shot Hit WoodworkNikola Katic · 56′ · xG 0.04 · Shot Off TargetErmedin Demirovic · 66′ · xG 0.22 · Shot On TargetEsmir Bajraktarevic · 68′ · xG 0.10 · Shot On TargetAmar Dedic · 74′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedKerim Alajbegovic · 77′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedMalik Tillman · 79′ · xG 0.30 · Shot BlockedMalik Tillman · 82′ · xG 0.11 · Goal - Free-kickAmar Memic · 90′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedKerim Alajbegovic · 90'+2′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetAlex Freeman · 90'+6′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetErmin Mahmic · 90'+8′ · xG 0.04 · Shot Off TargetErmin Mahmic · 90'+9′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off Target
USA (attacking →) Bosnia & Herzegovina (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
USA  ·  match stats  ·  Bosnia & Herzegovina
48.4 Possession 51.6
8 Shots 10
2 On Target 3
4 Corners 3
7 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 0
3 Saves 0
0 Yellows 1
1 Reds 0
What the model expected
USA 59%draw 22%Bosnia & Herzegovina 19%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: USA 1861, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1761. The model priced this USA 59% / draw 22% / Bosnia & Herzegovina 19%, most likely score 1–0. The model called it. The result moves 22 Elo points from Bosnia & Herzegovina to USA — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
45' GOALGoal! USA 1, Bosnia and Herzegovina 0. Folarin Balogun (USA) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal.
51' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Esmir Bajraktarevic replaces Armin Gigovic.
51' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Benjamin Tahirovic replaces Ivan Sunjic.
51' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Ermin Mahmic replaces Edin Dzeko because of an injury.
64' REDFolarin Balogun (USA) is shown the red card.
75' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Haris Tabakovic replaces Sead Kolasinac.
75' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Amar Memic replaces Nikola Katic.
80' YELLOWStjepan Radeljic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
82' GOALGoal! USA 2, Bosnia and Herzegovina 0. Malik Tillman (USA) from a free kick with a right footed shot to the top left corner.
87' SUBSubstitution, USA. Sebastian Berhalter replaces Sergiño Dest.
88' SUBSubstitution, USA. Ricardo Pepi replaces Christian Pulisic.
90'+5' SUBSubstitution, USA. Giovanni Reyna replaces Weston McKennie.
Lineups
United States
4-3-3
  • 24Matt Freese G
  • 13Tim Ream CD-L
  • 3Chris Richards CD-R
  • 5Antonee Robinson LB
  • 16Alex Freeman RB
  • 4Tyler Adams CM
  • 17Malik Tillman LM
  • 8Weston McKennie RM
  • 20Folarin Balogun F
  • 10Christian Pulisic LF
  • 2Sergiño Dest RF
Subs: Sebastian Berhalter, Ricardo Pepi, Giovanni Reyna
Bosnia-Herzegovina
5-3-2
  • 1Nikola Vasilj G
  • 4Tarik Muharemovic CD
  • 21Stjepan Radeljic CD-L
  • 18Nikola Katic CD-R
  • 5Sead Kolasinac LB
  • 7Amar Dedic RB
  • 14Ivan Sunjic CM
  • 19Kerim Alajbegovic CM-L
  • 8Armin Gigovic CM-R
  • 10Ermedin Demirovic CF-L
  • 11Edin Dzeko CF-R
Subs: Esmir Bajraktarevic, Benjamin Tahirovic, Ermin Mahmic, Haris Tabakovic, Amar Memic
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).